At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer footsoldiers on the ground matters most

At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer footsoldiers on the ground matters most

Comments 0 Comment

Signs from the @LordAshcroft seat polling on level of party contact that LAB running more intensive ground war pic.twitter.com/88OvE6GaaE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2015 Campaign spending limits restrict delivery options We are now in what is legally termed the “short campaign” when the amount of money that can be spent by each candidate is strictly laid down. The maximum is £8,700 + 6p or 9p per elector depending on whether it is borough or county constituency. So in…

Read More Read More

Th non-doms – Marf gives her take

Th non-doms – Marf gives her take

Comments 0 Comment

There’s an excellent piece by John Rentoul on the issue here. The heading says it all:- “Non-doms: If Osborne was on the ball he would not be left defending a tax perk for the rich. The stupidity of his response is matched only by its laziness. He writes:- “.. the Tories defined themselves as the defenders of global tax avoiders. The stupidity of Osborne’s response is matched only by its laziness. The Conservatives do not seem to realise that there…

Read More Read More

This afternoon’s batch of Ashcroft marginals polling has the battle for most seats on knife edge

This afternoon’s batch of Ashcroft marginals polling has the battle for most seats on knife edge

Comments 0 Comment

OPne new LAB gains found or no CON holds found We’ve just got the latest round of Ashcroft marginals polling where all the fieldwork was between March 30th and April 4th. So all very up to date. The details of the seats included are set out below. As can be seen there are no changes on previous Ashcroft polls in the seats. The battle is very very tight. @LordAshcroft Blackpool N CON hold pic.twitter.com/gkSBnMPxZr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8,…

Read More Read More

Labour’s hoping that taking on the non doms could be a narrative changer

Labour’s hoping that taking on the non doms could be a narrative changer

Comments 0 Comment

The Guardian's front page lead on Labour's plans for non doms http://t.co/Ge1YtTRuHI pic.twitter.com/NTa2bcMjvR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2015 The first big policy development of the campaign Today’s announcement by Miliband that if they win power they’d end the special tax status of non-doms is the first genuine policy surprise of the campaign and could be quite a tricky one for Cameron/Osborne to respond to. For the perception that the blues are on the side of the rich and…

Read More Read More

Tonight’s Scottish debate was superb – the question now is whether it will change votes

Tonight’s Scottish debate was superb – the question now is whether it will change votes

Comments 0 Comment

With what happens in Scotland likely to play a big part in the May 7th outcome the big event tonight was the STV Scottish leaders’ debate. It was powerful and passionate and on a totally different level from the sterile event last Thursday. The clip above is one of the better bits. For Jim Murphy this was a massive night and I thought he did well -though at times might have been too aggressive. Nicola Sturgeon found the going much…

Read More Read More

If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?

If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?

Comments 0 Comment

From the polling in the first week of the official campaign it is hard to draw any conclusions. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/kjoEbkEFjs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2015 Projecting seats numbers: Bottom up or top down? The Easter holidays are over. Now it gets serious. Will one of the main parties end the stalemate and draw clear across a range of pollsters? Hard to say. All the post-debate polling has shown LAB on the same 33%. What has differed…

Read More Read More

Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling

Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling

Comments 0 Comment

Nearly 70% didn’t vote Blue in 2010 The Telegraph is leading on a big interview it has with Cameron during which the CON leader made a special appeal to UKIP voters. The report notes:- “In an interview with The Telegraph, the Prime Minister insisted that he has heard the message of frustrated Tory voters “loud and clear” but is now appealing to them to help him “avert the danger of a Labour government”.With one month until the polls open, Mr…

Read More Read More