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The 2001 LAB incumbency experience: Can CON expect something similar 3 weeks tomorrow?

15/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Might CON first timers hang on like LAB did then Labour returned to power in May 1997 and four years and one month later Tony Blair went to the country to renew his mandate. The outcome was never really in doubt and on the day, as the official record shows above, LAB won on a reduced vote share. Yet this hardly mattered in terms of seats The actual drop in the lead over the Tories was 3.6% yet William Hague’s…

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The marginals down for CON hold are where there’s the least amount of 2010 LD to LAB switching

15/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Polling analysis: The latest 20 Ashcroft marginal surveys For the past four years my view of GE15 has been that 2010 LD voters in the marginals were likely to be a main driving force. In 2010 they represented nearly one in four of all GB votes. Now the party had been polling only a fraction of that where would those votes move? The biggest group of switchers are those saying they’ve gone to LAB. There are many types and it…

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A great GE15 data resource from AndyJS

14/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

AndyJS has just finished what looks set to be a great resource for the election. A full candidate database with all those standing in the election which linked to key data about the constituency. You can link to it here. It is an excellent piece of work and will come in useful in the the coming three weeks and a day that remain.

UKIP seats drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets

14/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

UKIP now at lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread market from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/mSbrZjmEIZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2015 With all the focus being on LAB and CON there’s not been that much attention to the decline of UKIP in the polls. Although this is not universal quite a number of surveys from firms that used to have the best numbers for Farage’s party now have big declines. This is now being reflected on the spread…

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Latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out

14/4/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out. The average swing in these seats is around 3.5%, which contrasts to the 2% found in last week’s batch of marginal polling. But the swing isn’t uniform in these seats, ranging from a 7.5% Con to Lab swing in Crewe & Nantwich and a 3.5% Lab to Con swing in North East Somerset. The Tories might be happy that the Lab gains are within the margin of error. UKIP might…

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Stand by for this morning seat polling from Lord Ashcroft

14/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The marginal seats poll for release 8am tomorrow are Tory held which need a swing to Labour of about 5% to change. Will they be blue or red? — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) April 13, 2015 I’m on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning followed by a breakfast briefing on the election so won’t be in a position to report and post on the latest round of Ashcroft seat polling. Above ARE the seats which seem to fit his bill. Mike…

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And as Marf reminds us today was the day when LAB published its manifesto

13/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord Ashcroft

13/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This puts ICM’s 6% CON lead into context I was driving in thick traffic round the M25 and am only just now catching up with this extraordinary afternoon of polling. Lord Ashcroft, who polls weekly by phone and has a weighting structure not too different from ICM. has a very different picture. Both Ashcroft and ICM had 3% leads in their last surveys yet one moved in one direction and the other moved in another To his great credit ICM…

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