Zac becomes the favourite to be the next London Mayor

Zac becomes the favourite to be the next London Mayor

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.@ZacGoldsmith's constituents back his attempt to become London Mayor. http://t.co/ixQdxdBGC7 pic.twitter.com/vFRuYCrYtE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2015 Zac takes over as favourite to be elected London Mayor. 2/1 Zac 5/2 Jowell 10/3 Khan via @LadPolitics pic.twitter.com/keApCRF0IP — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2015 The other important news is that Goldsmith has persuaded, another contender, Nick de Bois, to be his campaign chairman, which is a sign that people see his nomination as inevitable. Taking the 1/2 that Paddy Power are offering…

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Henry G Manson says It’s advantage Sadiq in the London Labour contest

Henry G Manson says It’s advantage Sadiq in the London Labour contest

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You know when a candidate is losing when they start to blame the rules of the game. We don’t get more proof than in London right now. Len Duvall, a backer of Tessa Jowell’s bid to be Labour mayoral candidate, has publicly warned of the dangers of muslims and trade union members registering to vote in the Labour mayoral selection. He questioned whether this was in the ‘spirit’ of the contest. It may be shameless but Len knows what he is…

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Antifrank compares 2015 to 1992

Antifrank compares 2015 to 1992

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We spend much time looking at the most recent developments.  But every now and then it is profitable to stand back and look at longer term trends.  That is most easily done by comparing elections which produced quite similar overall results and then looking at the detail.  The 1992 and the 2015 election results are sufficiently similar overall to make that a valuable exercise.  Except in Scotland. The overall result in 2015 was as follows: Con 330 Lab 232 SNP 56 Lib Dem 8 Plaid…

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Betting on the date of the EU referendum

Betting on the date of the EU referendum

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Over the weekend, stories emerged, which were downplayed by Number 10, that the EU referendum  was set for October 2016.  Then the Telegraph’s Chief Political Correspondent tweeted this afternoon. David Cameron could secure EU deal in time for October’s Tory party conference, Number 10 has indicated today. By me: http://t.co/519i3mJ491 — Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) June 22, 2015 It looks like July to October 2016 would be the optimal time to hold the referendum from Cameron’s point of view and William Hill’s 3/1…

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The most important result on May 7th

The most important result on May 7th

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Why David Cameron might be grateful to Mark Reckless defecting Whilst it might be accurate to say every constituency result on May the 7th was important, the result in Rochester & Strood might be the one that has most impact in this parliament. Anything that helps, to borrow LBJ’s maxim, about keeping the Eurosceptics inside the tent pissing out, rather than outside pissing in, is good for the Tories, Cameron and the continued life of this government. Given the way the…

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Latest on the Labour leadership race

Latest on the Labour leadership race

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We may soon see crossover between Burnham & Cooper Betfair exchange trend chart showing Burnham's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/2JtiIAkO2k — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Betfair exchange trend chart showing Cooper's odds as % age chance pic.twitter.com/HP7A9FuY7i — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 21, 2015 Implied percentages from the Betfair odds for winning the Labour leadership just now are 39.37% for Burnham and 36.23% for Cooper. This may just be political gravity bringing the odds back down to a more…

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Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

Betting on the next Labour leader leading the party into the next general election

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There is a risk of Labour overcompensating for not removing Brown & Miliband. During Wednesday’s debate, Andy Burnham and the other contenders admitted they would stand down as leader if they were a hindrance to Labour winning in 2020, the fact we’re having this debate is down to Labour realising they may have done better at the 2010 and 2015 elections if they had taken the opportunities to remove Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband. Any mistake or poor polling will…

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David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

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YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 Left wing contenders were overstated, those of the right understated Judging by what some LAB members have been Tweeting it looks as though, maybe even tonight, we’ll see the first poll, from YouGov,…

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