Given that 40% of current Reform MPs are former Tory MPs and by my count 100% of current Reform MPs have been Tories in the past and every week seem hear about former Tory MPs defecting to Reform then I am not sure this strategy will be effective. As we can see in the image opponents of Reform are highlighting the number of former Tories who have defected to Reform. TSE
When it comes to foreign elections I have a golden rule which is don’t bet unless you speak the local language, so that limits me to betting on elections in France, Germany, Belgium, and English speaking nations like Canada, Australia, and America with a certain generosity of spirit, which is why I avoided betting on the election in the Netherlands. Congratulations to anybody who backed the D66 at 200/1 and 100/1, it is also a salutary lesson about why sometimes…
The polling is utterly grim for Queen Elizabeth ii’s favourite child. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday
Is assuming the 2028 White House race be a free and fair election the sign of being a fucking idiot? A few weeks ago I met up with somebody whose views on political analysis and betting I utterly respect and whose predictions have a very high rate of being accurate. As our discussion turned to events over the pond I laid out my betting strategy for the 2028 White House race to which led to my companion calling me ‘a…
The long term future of the monarchy is in doubt thanks to the young and Green voters. TSE I am currently on holiday until the weekend.
Only the very excitable or those that don’t understand polls would get excited by a single poll but if we start seeing consistent polls with one of the Lib Dems or Greens in second place and the Tories and Labour consistently polling fourth and fifth then it might be further proof that the century long duopoly is over. TSE
TSE
We should be talking about David Lammy as our next PM. As Deputy PM he might be the best placed candidate if Sir Keir Starmer falls under the proverbial bus. Lammy showed his lawyery brilliance in the clip above and much like my 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband to succeed Starmer, this feels like an excellent trading bet, especially when you consider the likes of Zack Polanski, Zia Yusuf, and Rupert Lowe are considered having better chances of becoming our…