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Big swings to the SNP in the latest local by-elections: Full results

7/8/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Anderston and City (SNP defence), Calton (SNP defence), Craigton (SNP defence) and Langside (Green defence) on City of Glasgow Anderston and City Result: SNP 1,441 (48% +18%), Labour 857 (29% -21%), Green 414 (14% +4%), Conservatives 164 (5% unchanged), Liberal Democrats 66 (2% unchanged), UKIP 43 (1%, no candidate in 2012), Libertarian 12 (0%, no candidate in 2012) SNP HOLD on the sixth count with a majority of 584 (19%) on a swing of 19.5% from Labour to SNP Calton…

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The first GOP debate – has it changed your view?

7/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com Everybody seems to want instant reactions to events like the Fox GOP debates in Cleveland Ohio. My only “winner”, for want of a better term, was Carly Fiorina – the ex-CEO of Hewlett Packard who sounded fluid and convincing in the first session for those who started with the lowest poll ratings. Next time she needs to be facing Donald Trump – the dominant figure who has refused to rule out running as a…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : August 6th 2015

6/8/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Anderston and City (SNP defence), Calton (SNP defence), Craigton (SNP defence) and Langside (Green defence) on City of Glasgow Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 44, Scottish National Party 27, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 1, Conservatives 1, Glasgow First 1 (Labour majority of 9) Anderston and City Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,113, 1,561 (50%) SNP 516, 1,057 (30%) Green 558 (10%) Conservative 249 (5%) Liberal Democrats 89 (2%) Solidarity 89…

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This YouGov polling hits the nail on the head about policies and leadership contenders

6/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/629259031253790720/photo/1 Having policies that poll well doesn’t necessarily mean electoral success This supports my long-standing view about the importance of policy positions. They have a part to play but only a part. The quality that voters most look for in a leader is competence – the word that the successful Crosby GE15 campaign used repeatedly. Thanks to Matt Singh (NumberCruncher) for highlighting this. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

From Ohio, the Nuneaton of US politics, the GOP search for its WH2016 nominee has its 1st official event tonight

6/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chart from Ladbrokes Is Jeb Bush really worth his betting favourite status? Just as the first TV debate on the Labour leadership was in a seat that the party has to win if it is to succeed in a general election so Fox has chosen Cleveland in the key swing state of Ohio for the first TV debate of the Republican Party White House nomination race. This is a big moment in the campaign and throse hopefuls who’ve thrown their…

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Methinks that Burnham’s nationalise the railways plan could come back to have haunt him

5/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It just looks as if he’s scared of Corbyn Although Burnham has been careful to say that he’d move the railways back into the public sector line by line it is the headline that is going to stick and will be used by the Tories. This can easily woven into a narrative about the red team’s economic credibility and we saw in May how blisteringly effective that can be. Lynton Crosby always says that it is not policies themselves that…

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When will Dave depart?

5/8/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Pulpstar looks at the Dave exit betting Away from the current Labour leadership election and Mayoralty there may just be one or two political bargains on offer.. In his late March interview, David Cameron announced that he would not serve out a third term. Here I take a look at when he may leave and some associated odds: 2015: 50-1 Sky Bet (Cease to be PM) I’d put the odds of the PM leaving this year extremely low. The only…

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The LAB betting is now strongly back with Burnham but does it mean anything?

5/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Punters are flying blind There have basically been three sources of data for the Labour leadership contest none of which really mean that much at all. The first has been the polling with all but one of the reported surveys being private ones where we don’t even know the name of the pollster if indeed they were carried out professionally. The second source has been the list of constituency nominations but again it is hard to know whether you can…

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