Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : August 6th 2015

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : August 6th 2015

Anderston and City (SNP defence), Calton (SNP defence), Craigton (SNP defence) and Langside (Green defence) on City of Glasgow
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 44, Scottish National Party 27, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 1, Conservatives 1, Glasgow First 1 (Labour majority of 9)

Anderston and City
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,113, 1,561 (50%)
SNP 516, 1,057 (30%)
Green 558 (10%)
Conservative 249 (5%)
Liberal Democrats 89 (2%)
Solidarity 89 (2%)
Pirate Party 46 (1%)
Glasgow First 20 (0%)
Brittanica 17 (0%)
Candidates duly nominated: Eva Bolander (SNP), Stevie Creighton (Libertarian), Katie Ford (Lab), Ary Jaff (Con), Janice MacKay (UKIP), Gary McLelland (Lib Dem), Christy Mearns (Green)

Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,595, 892 (55%)
SNP 672, 695 (30%)
Green 135 (3%)
Conservatives 120 (3%)
Glasgow First 131 (3%)
Scottish Unionists 109 (2%)
Independents 41 (1%)
Liberal Democrats 43 (1%)
Scottish Socialists 43 (1%)
Non Party Independent 71 (1%)
Brittanica 9 (0%)
Candidates duly nominated: Malachy Clarke (Green), Greg Hepburn (SNP), Thomas Kerr (Con), Karen King (UKIP), Tommy Ramsay (Non Party Independent), Thomas Rannachan (Lab), Chris Young (Lib Dem)

Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 2,102, 2,279 (53%)
SNP 1,876 , 700 (31%)
Solidarity 472 (6%)
Conservatives 292 (4%)
Glasgow First 147 (2%)
Green 169 (2%)
Liberal Democrats 76 (1%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 86 (1%)
Candidates duly nominated: Phillip Charles (Con), Isabel Nelson (Lib Dem), Katie Noble (Green), Kevin O’Donnell (Lab), Arthur Thackeray (UKIP), Alex Wilson (SNP)

Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
SNP 652, 1,930 (38%)
Labour 2,441 (36%)
Green 618 (9%)
Conservatives 493 (7%)
Liberal Democrats 498 (7%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist 162 (2%)
Glasgow First 70 (1%)
Candiadates duly nominated: Eileen Dinning (Lab), Ian Leech (TUSC), Will Milinship (Lib Dem), Cailean Mongan (UKIP), Robert Pollock (Green), Anna Richardson (SNP), Kyle Thornton (Con)

Total votes cast in wards being elected
Labour 48%, SNP 33%, Green 6%, Con 5%, Lib Dem 3%, Glasgow First 2%, Solidarity 2%, Trade Unionist and Socialist 1%, Others 2%

Today could be described as a mini local election in Glasgow and as a result you can bet your bottom dollar that the Glasgow SNP delegation will be stomping the ground like nobody’s business (and with very good reason indeed). At the 1983 general election (the last time that Labour did not win all the seats in Glasgow) the SNP only managed to poll 8% of the vote, that increased to 10% in 1987, 20% in 1992, 19% in 1997, 17% in 2001, 15% in 2005 and 17% in 2010 but that belied an incredible transformation at both the Holyrood level and local level. At the 1999 Holyrood elections the SNP polled 28% at the constituency level and 26% at the regional level. 2003 was of course a disappointment for the SNP (19% constituency, 17% regional) but was just a blip as in 2007 the constituency vote increased to 30%, the regional vote to 27% and for the first time at a national election the SNP won a constituency in Glasgow (Govan) and in 2011, the SNP polled a majority in Glasgow for the first time ever (45% in the constituency vote compared to Labour’s 44%) and 40% in the regional vote comapred to Labour’s 35%. So therefore it should have come as no suprise when Glasgow voted YES in the referendum on independence with a majority of 25,432 votes (7%). And the net result of that vote? SNP domination of Glasgow at the Westminster level winning all seven seats and polling 55% of the vote. Which, when you consider that Labour’s majority on Glasgow (one of only a few councils to have a Labour majority post STV) is based on a Labour lead over the SNP of 14% means that the provost of Glasgow council is going to be looking at these results and wondering if this is the end of Labour’s control of Glasgow (something that not even STV managed to prevent).

Hamilton South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 33, Scottish National Party 28, Conservatives 3, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 800, 1,975 (51%)
SNP 1,255, 502 (33%)
Conservatives 496 (9%)
Pensioners 199 (4%)
Christian Party 165 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Matthew Cockburn (Lib Dem), John Kane (Green), Jim Lee (Lab), Donald MacKay (UKIP), Andrew McCallum (Pirate), Lynne Nailon (Con), John Ross (SNP), Craig Smith (Christian)

In terms of area, South Lanarkshire is one of the largest councils in Scotland and when it was formed in 1995 it was a true Labour heartland (61 out of 74 councillors) which didn’t change much until the introduction of STV in 2007 and even when Labour didn’t win the new council they were the largest party (30 councillors out of 67) and in 2012 they came within a whisker of winning it back. However those days must now seem like the mythical village of Brigadoon (something that appears for only 24 hours once a century) and as it will only take a 9% swing for the SNP to top the poll, South Lanarkshire (along with a large number of Scottish councils in 2017) is almost certain to have the SNP as the largest party.

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