Punters are flying blind
There have basically been three sources of data for the Labour leadership contest none of which really mean that much at all. The first has been the polling with all but one of the reported surveys being private ones where we don’t even know the name of the pollster if indeed they were carried out professionally.
The second source has been the list of constituency nominations but again it is hard to know whether you can assume but that these represents the views of those who are entitled to vote in this contest. In many areas the CLPs decisions have been based on the views of just a handful of people.
The third strand, of course, have been the betting markets which have become quite lively and active and seen relatively high levels of liquidity.
On top of this the nature of LAB’s alternative vote electoral system with the new structure for trade union votes and the inclusion members of the public prepared to give the party Â£3 combine to make the process of measurement and predictions becomes even harder.
We do know that AV has changed the outcome in the last two major LAB elections – Harman’s victory in the 207 deputy race and, of course, EdM in 2010. What will it do in 2015?
The ballot packs go out in the next week. I’ve got an all green (I win whatever happens) position with Betfair which I intend to maintain.