How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?

How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?

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If Labour MPs want to remove Corbyn, they need to stop Corbyn having a honeymoon or polling bounce. If as expected Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader, then those inside the Labour party looking to depose Corbyn as leader before the  next general election might want to have a word with the Barrow & Furness MP, John Woodcock, who also is Liz Kendall’s campaign manager and remind him of his pre-election pledge. My pledge: am so confident Labour will build four Trident successor…

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If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum NO bets look quite tempting

If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum NO bets look quite tempting

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I’ve been trying to look at other political betting markets which might be affected if Corbyn does, as the YouGov numbers suggest, take the crown in the LAB leadership contest. A key one over an election that might well be taking place in the next twelve months, is the referendum on whether the UK should remain within the EU. Corbyn’s position is equivocal as seen in this recent report. It is not inconceivable that he could be on the leave…

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Corbyn will win but he is popular with the wrong people at the wrong time for the wrong reasons

Corbyn will win but he is popular with the wrong people at the wrong time for the wrong reasons

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Surfing a wave of superficial attractiveness can only get so far There is no good reason for believing that Jeremy Corbyn is not going to win the Labour leadership. The polls have all pointed heavily in that direction, constituency nominations have favoured him ahead of his rivals, union nominations (and organisation) will count for even more, and the late and huge surge of voters joining up to take part cannot rationally be explained other than as an active endorsement of…

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Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election

Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election

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What’s next for the Conservatives? Could David Cameron stay on and fight the 2020 General Election? Since the Conservatives somewhat unexpectedly won a majority in May most of the media attention has been focused on who the next Labour leader will be. But what about the Conservatives? As Labour tears itself apart it is easy to forget that the Tories have problems of their own. The party has never really ‘settled’ the issue of Europe and the upcoming EU referendum…

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An LD gain from CON and a CON gain from LAB the main highlights of this week’s local by elections

An LD gain from CON and a CON gain from LAB the main highlights of this week’s local by elections

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Crosskeys on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result: Labour 354 (51% -4%), Plaid Cymru 179 (26% +13%), United Kingdom Independence Party 166 (24%, no candidate in 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 175 (25%) on a swing of 8.5% from Labour to Plaid Cymru Glasbury on Powys (Con defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 457 (44%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 415 (40% -15%), Independent 106 (10% -23%), Green Party 52 (5%, no candidate in 2012) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a…

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Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

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Via @AlbertoNardelli The report in the Times about Corbyn being on 57% with YouGov pic.twitter.com/K28q62af0H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 14, 2015 The President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, explained in a separate article that they had looked at the polling figures again in the light of the data from the party showing the huge influx of names in the final few days. He goes on:- “..I have taken the support YouGov found in each of these groups and adjusted the…

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Tonight’s by-elections see 2 contests each in Scotland, Wales and England

Tonight’s by-elections see 2 contests each in Scotland, Wales and England

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Harry Hayfield’s preview Crosskeys on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independent 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 543 (55%), Independent 281 (28%), Plaid Cymru 126 (13%), Conservative 39 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Chris Cook (Plaid), Julian Simmonds (Lab), Joe Smyth (UKIP) The natural assumption of most people to Caerphilly would be “Yawn, Labour hold, next council please!” but to disregard Caerphilly would be…

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Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

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The great chronicler of US presidential elections, Theodore White, tells the story of a Democratic candidate for minor office in New York who complained to the local party boss that the party had issued no publicity with his name on it. Go down to the harbour, he was told. Look at the Staten Island ferry. When it comes in to dock it drags harbour garbage in its wake. “Franklin Delano Roosevelt is your Staten island ferry, ” An “electable” leader…

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