In this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcasts, Keiran discusses the Labour leadership with Stephen Bush of the New Statesman and Laurence Janta-Lipinski of YouGov. We ask whether Jeremy Corbyn is inevitable, where Labour goes from here and whether Corbyn could surprise people if he wins. Also, can a non-left Labour candidate win the leadership again and what does the next Labour PM look like..
August 18th 2015 West Mainland on Orkney (Non Party Independent defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 11, Non Party Independents 10 (Independent majority of 22) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Non Party Independents 322, 33, 238, 427, 287 (71%) Independents 74, 73, 249, 132 (29%) Candidates duly nominated: Barbara Foulkes (Ind), Fiona Grahame (Green), Rachel King (Orkney Manifesto) Elections to Orkney Island council can be, well how can I put it politely,…
Peter Kellner on #wato: A week ago, Corbyn was comfortably ahead. Now, I don’t know — Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) August 18, 2015 We don’t know whether what Kellner said is based on data There’s been an easing of the Corbyn price on the Betfair exchange after the above comment by YouGov president, Peter Kellner, in an interview. At one stage this morning he was at 1.35 on Betfair. That is now 1.43. Kellner clearly sees a lot more polling and…
Take on the mystery Betfair punter Mike ran a thread the other day looking for markets that might be affected by Jeremy Corbyn’s likely victory in the Labour leadership stakes. He highlighted NO in the EU betting where I’d agree odds of nearly 4/1 are tempting. However to my mind there are even better bets available in the London Mayoral voting – which will still be value even if Corbyn falls just short. Labour’s candidate is being decided on the same…
Survation finds generic LAB has 9% lead Some interesting polling from Survation this afternoon looks at the likely ethic voter impact in next May’s Mayoral election. Initially the sample was asked a generic question – see chart above. Respondents were then asked, following the clips of Goldsmith and Khan: If the election for the next Mayor of London were between the following candidates, whom would you vote for as the next Mayor of London with your first vote? Results were:…
Antifrank asks should the SNP commit to a second independence referendum? Picture yourself for a moment as Nicola Sturgeon. Right now, she presides over a hegemony. At every level of Scottish politics, the SNP has routed its opponents. It has 56 out of 59 MPs. It has an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament. It has more local authority councillors than any other party. And the SNP is strengthening its grip. In the most recent local authority by-elections, it is…
What the “experts” deemed a debate disaster hasn’t done him any harm It’s now a week and a half on from the first Republican nominee debate of the 2016 campaign – an event that delivered for Fox News its biggest audience of all time. Normally at this stage in a White House very few people are concerned with the minutiae of nomination battles and TV debate audiences are measured in hundreds of thousands not tens of millions. The reason, of…
Could 2016 be Bush v Gore not Bush v Clinton? You can see how Hillary Clinton’s issue with her private emails turns very messy and denies her the nomination, Joe Biden’s age is becoming a barrier to him getting the nomination, so much so, that’s he reportedly considering standing for only one term to calm those concerns about his age. The other day it was reported former Vice President and winner of the popular vote in the 2000 Presidential election, Al…