The ethnic minority vote could be decisive in London’s Mayoral election where nearly 40% were born overseas

The ethnic minority vote could be decisive in London’s Mayoral election where nearly 40% were born overseas


Survation finds generic LAB has 9% lead

Some interesting polling from Survation this afternoon looks at the likely ethic voter impact in next May’s Mayoral election.

Initially the sample was asked a generic question – see chart above.

Respondents were then asked, following the clips of Goldsmith and Khan:

If the election for the next Mayor of London were between the following candidates, whom would you vote for as the next Mayor of London with your first vote?

Results were:

Sadiq Khan LAB 50%

Zac Goldsmith CON 37%

Another party’s candidate – 13%

A small relative increase for Sadiq Khan as the identified Labour candidate over Zac Goldsmith, the Conservative party candidate compared to their original generic number.

Londoners reacting to this final question which showed increased support for Khan would have awareness after these short clips that Sadiq Khan is likely a British Muslim or did not even consider faith as a meaningful judgement factor in this ethnically diverse city – so there’s little evidence that faith would hold back Sadiq Khan’s electoral fortunes; an exercise that could be repeated and tested for Conservative Sayeed Kamall MEP and a non-Muslim Labour candidate.

More interesting within this data however is how ethnic minority responders shifted views post being introduced to these potential candidates.

White Respondents

Looking at voting intention in the polling by ethnic group, before the video clips White British respondents split 42% to an unnamed Conservative candidate and 34% to an unnamed Labour candidate.

After the video clips, now naming Sadiq Khan and Zac Goldsmith as Mayoral candidates for their parties head to head, both get a boost – 45% to Goldsmith, 40% to Khan. Khan gained 6% to Goldsmith’s 2%.

Black Respondents

Black respondents break 77% to an unnamed Labour candidate and 14% to an unnamed Conservative candidate. After the candidate names are introduced and post the video clips, this grouping breaks 73% Khan and 22% Goldsmith – Khan -4 and Goldsmith +8

Asian Respondents

Finally, and perhaps most significantly, Asian respondents initially break 56% to an unnamed Labour candidate and 29% to an unnamed Conservative candidate before the clips and candidate names are introduced.

Post the naming and video introductions though, this grouping breaks 71% Khan (+15) and 23% (-9) Goldsmith, showing a very sizable swing toward Khan amongst this group – the largest broad ethnic grouping in London, representing 18.5% of the mayoral electorate.

As LAB and CON consider candidate options for Mayor, “ethnic minority voters” the40% could be key.

Mike Smithson

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