The pollster with the best record in Iowa has Cruz taking 10% lead in the 1st state to decide

The pollster with the best record in Iowa has Cruz taking 10% lead in the 1st state to decide

Comments 0 Comment

The Des Moines Register poll Cruz 31% +21 Trump 21% +2 Carson 13% -15 Rubio 10% +1 Bush 5% – (Comparisons with last DMR poll in October) As was discussed on the last post Ann Selzer polling for the state’s leading newspaper has over the years built up an enviable reputation. Her approach reaches those most likely to vote in the caucuses. You can see why Donald Trump started rubbishing this poll before it came out as it implies Trump,…

Read More Read More

Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a history of springing surprises

Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a history of springing surprises

Comments 0 Comment

Here’s odds-on Democratic favourite Howard Dean in 2004 How will Trump cope with the caucus hurdle? We’ve got just seven weeks to wait until the first US voters start making their choices in the 2016 White House race. As has become the custom since 1972 the first state to express a choice is Iowa with its caucuses. Here, instead of going to a polling station like in the states that have full primaries, interested voters attend separate party meetings in…

Read More Read More

David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

Comments 0 Comment

The lessons of a Trump defeat would resonate for decades Only one person has set the race for next year’s GOP nomination alight and that person is Donald Trump. Behind his blaze of controversy, energy, self-publicity and populism lies a field strewn with the bewilderment of his rivals: how has he lasted so long? Why have his gaffes not brought him down? How can he be effectively taken on? As yet, they have no answers. That was painfully apparent in…

Read More Read More

An LD won off UKIP in this week’s Local By-Elections

An LD won off UKIP in this week’s Local By-Elections

Comments 0 Comment

Kinson South (Two Conservative defences) on Bournemouth Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Apology Number One: The result last time was for Kinson NORTH ward, this is the correct result for Kinson SOUTH ward United Kingdom Independence Party 1,224 (25%) Conservatives 1,188, 1,147, 919 (25%) Labour 1,083, 951, 875 (22%) Bournemouth Independents 489 (10%) Green Party 471 (10%) Liberal Democrats 378 (8%) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 520, 509 (33% +8%) Labour 471, 371 (29% +7%)…

Read More Read More

Donald Brind wonders whether Osborne’s luck will hold?

Donald Brind wonders whether Osborne’s luck will hold?

Comments 0 Comment

The Friday column From a Labour perspective “We have an economic plan that is delivering for Britain”. When George Osborne uttered his familiar mantra in the Commons on Wednesday it sounded as though he was clinging to a piece of wreckage after his encounter with Angela Eagle. The duo were standing in for their bosses as first secretary of state and his shadow, rather than in their day jobs as Chancellor and shadow Business Secretary. Questioned about the Cumbria flood…

Read More Read More

The repeated Heathrow delays don’t square with Cameon’s image about being able to take tough decisions

The repeated Heathrow delays don’t square with Cameon’s image about being able to take tough decisions

Comments 0 Comment

There’s a danger, as Gordon Brown found, in being labelled a “bottler” One of the features where Cameron generally polls very well is on the ability to take tough decisions. A couple of months ago Opinium found 40% thought saying ‘being able to take tough decisions’ best described David Cameron compared to 16% saying the same about Jeremy Corbyn. In a pre-GE2015 comparison between Cameron and Boris the PM had a big lead over the mayor on the tough decision…

Read More Read More

The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at whether Donald Trump can really do it

The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at whether Donald Trump can really do it

Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran talks Trump with Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post USA. His recent comments on Muslims have caused an international furor and yet his popularity (at least in the GOP) seems undiminished. Should we start getting used to the idea of President Trump? Why might Iowa and New Hampshire not hold the same significance in this race that they usually do and if not Trump then who? Ariel Edwards-:Levy is a reporter and polling…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election History and Candidates : December 10th 2015: 4 Con, 2 Lab and 1 LD Defences

Local By-Election History and Candidates : December 10th 2015: 4 Con, 2 Lab and 1 LD Defences

Comments 0 Comment

Kinson South (Two Conservative defences) on Bournemouth Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 49, Independent 1, United Kingdom Indepdence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 48) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,638, 1,579, 1,439 (33%) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,362 (27%) Labour 1,060, 918, 814 (21%) Green Party 526, 484 (10%) Liberal Democrat 453 (9%) Candidates duly nominated by party: Conservatives: Norman Decent, Roger Marley Labour: Beryl Baxter, Mel Semple Liberal Democrats: Phil…

Read More Read More