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The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz

16/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The betting barely moved I didn’t stay up for the latest GOP debate overnight and have yet to watch the entire event. So my comments here are based on the betting markets and what respected US commentators thought. This was the judgement of Political Wire’s Taegan Goddard: “.. Once again, Trump was the winner. Cruz took some hits on how he would combat the Islamic State, but he was very strong. Rubio fell short in defending himself on immigration in…

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Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

15/12/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Loras College poll has Cruz 7% ahead in IowaCruz 30Trump 23Rubio 11Carson 11Bush 6Fiorina 3,Paul 2Huckabee 2Christie 0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 @ppppolls have Trump still ahead in IowaTrump 28Cruz 25Rubio 14Carson 10Bush 7Fiorina 3Christie 3Huckabee 3Paul 2Kasich 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 ABC/Wash Post poll has Trump with big lead in national pollTrump 38Cruz 15Rubio 12Carson 12Bush 5Christie 4Paul 2Kasich 2Fiorina 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 Republican nominee race: At…

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The race for the Republican nomination could be clearer after tonightâ€™s final debate of 2015

15/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The polling front runner in Iowa, Ted Cruz, likely to come under close scrutiny in tonight's final 2015 GOP debate pic.twitter.com/kLIzukSNTI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 The contender in the spotlight – Ted Cruz Judging by the size of the TV audiences for the debates this coming fight for the Republican nomination is attracting more public attention than any previous White House race at the stage. This evening, at about 2 a.m. UK time, CNN in conjunction with…

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As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up

15/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Based on this it is too close to call Above is my latest table of EURef polls showing the two that were published overnight from Survation and ICM. Both show LEAVE making progress. What we really need are some more phone polls which have suggested a very different outcome from the online surveys which predominate. There are three December phone polls to come and I’m hoping that ComRes, ICM for the Guardian and Ipsos-MORI will have included referendum voting intentions…

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This is not America

14/12/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks looks at the politics of statistics Every few days, a twitter account run by the Guardian called @thecounted tweets the cumulative total of deaths at the hands of the police.Â The number is shocking.Â As at 10 December, the total stood at 1061 for the calendar year 2015.Â As often as not Guardian News retweets this information to its predominantly UK-based followers.Â The impression given, presumably deliberately, is of a police force that is too trigger-happy by far….

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Guido’s tweet could be right: George Osborne is a Tory version of Ed Miliband

14/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Have said it before and I will say it again, he's the Tory version of Ed Miliband https://t.co/u1aw7osfeQ — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) December 14, 2015 Like Ed his awkwardness is not going to go away Shortly after Ed Miliband was elected LAB leader in September 2010 some bright spark set up a website devoted to pictures of the opposition leader looking awkward. In its way this hit the nail on the head and was the forerunner of the famous Ed…

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UKIP sought to make Oldham a referendum on Corbyn but it ended up being a vote on itself

14/12/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Does immigration move votes in the way UKIP thinks it it does? Over the past few days I’ve had three conversations with people who were in Oldham for the by-election and which are the basis for this post which seeks to explain why we all got it so wrong. Just look at the PB competition forecasts or the betting history and you realise that it wasn’t meant to be a LAB victory with an increased majority. Since September 12th the…

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The Labour share of the vote in 2020

13/12/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes have a market up on whether Labour’s share of the vote will rise or fall at the next general election. My initial reaction was to back ‘fall’ because of the appalling personal polling figures that Jeremy Corbyn has, but to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, there’s quite a few known unknowns about the next general election that might have an impact on this bet, they are, inter alia, We don’t know who will be leading the Conservative Party (whomever it is…

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