Based on this it is too close to call
Above is my latest table of EURef polls showing the two that were published overnight from Survation and ICM. Both show LEAVE making progress.
What we really need are some more phone polls which have suggested a very different outcome from the online surveys which predominate. There are three December phone polls to come and I’m hoping that ComRes, ICM for the Guardian and Ipsos-MORI will have included referendum voting intentions – after all we could just be months away from the actual election.
The decision by the House of Lords yesterday not to back voting for 16-17 year olds means that organisationally an early referendum, maybe summer 2016, is possible.
Cameron is clearly central to the outcome and his apparent struggle to make progress with his EU partners is going to make it difficult for him. I believe that whatever Dave recommends will win.