Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

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An unusual voting question approach was used so difficult to make comparisons @LordAshcroft #EUref poll didn't ask simple question but this – pic.twitter.com/XEEvw4dWyV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The past 24 hours has seen a glut of EU referendum polling with the latest, overnight, being a 20k sample online poll from Lord Ashcroft. Lord Ashcroft’s post on the survey, linked to above, is well worth reading because it goes into far more than just referendum voting intention. On…

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If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to the Commons as MP for Tooting

If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to the Commons as MP for Tooting

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He’d be more use to Corbyn there than in the upper house There’s been a lot of talk in recent days about the former LAB Mayor of London, Ken Livingston, being made a peer and perhaps becoming his party’s leader in the Lords. The story I’ve been getting this afternoon is that there’s another plan to enable Ken to return to Westminster. If the betting favourite, Sadiq Khan, does become London Mayor in May’s election then there’ll be a by-election…

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The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

The great EURef phone/online polling divide continues as two new phone polls have 18-21% REMAIN leads

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Revised table of latest #EURef polling showing the 2 phone polls published this morning. pic.twitter.com/uk9ilG1Kb9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The oldies seem to respond most differently on the phone This morning we’ve got the EU referendum phone polls for two months and as can be seen in the table, they have numbers which are totally out of line with with all the online surveys. First out was ComRes with its poll for Open Europe followed by Ipsos…

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The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz

The latest GOP debate changes nothing – the front runners are still Trump, Rubio and Cruz

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The betting barely moved I didn’t stay up for the latest GOP debate overnight and have yet to watch the entire event. So my comments here are based on the betting markets and what respected US commentators thought. This was the judgement of Political Wire’s Taegan Goddard: “.. Once again, Trump was the winner. Cruz took some hits on how he would combat the Islamic State, but he was very strong. Rubio fell short in defending himself on immigration in…

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Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

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Loras College poll has Cruz 7% ahead in IowaCruz 30Trump 23Rubio 11Carson 11Bush 6Fiorina 3,Paul 2Huckabee 2Christie 0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 @ppppolls have Trump still ahead in IowaTrump 28Cruz 25Rubio 14Carson 10Bush 7Fiorina 3Christie 3Huckabee 3Paul 2Kasich 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 ABC/Wash Post poll has Trump with big lead in national pollTrump 38Cruz 15Rubio 12Carson 12Bush 5Christie 4Paul 2Kasich 2Fiorina 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 Republican nominee race: At…

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The race for the Republican nomination could be clearer after tonight’s final debate of 2015

The race for the Republican nomination could be clearer after tonight’s final debate of 2015

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The polling front runner in Iowa, Ted Cruz, likely to come under close scrutiny in tonight's final 2015 GOP debate pic.twitter.com/kLIzukSNTI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 The contender in the spotlight – Ted Cruz Judging by the size of the TV audiences for the debates this coming fight for the Republican nomination is attracting more public attention than any previous White House race at the stage. This evening, at about 2 a.m. UK time, CNN in conjunction with…

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As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up

As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up

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Based on this it is too close to call Above is my latest table of EURef polls showing the two that were published overnight from Survation and ICM. Both show LEAVE making progress. What we really need are some more phone polls which have suggested a very different outcome from the online surveys which predominate. There are three December phone polls to come and I’m hoping that ComRes, ICM for the Guardian and Ipsos-MORI will have included referendum voting intentions…

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This is not America

This is not America

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Alastair Meeks looks at the politics of statistics Every few days, a twitter account run by the Guardian called @thecounted tweets the cumulative total of deaths at the hands of the police.  The number is shocking.  As at 10 December, the total stood at 1061 for the calendar year 2015.  As often as not Guardian News retweets this information to its predominantly UK-based followers.  The impression given, presumably deliberately, is of a police force that is too trigger-happy by far….

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