— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015
The oldies seem to respond most differently on the phone
This morning we’ve got the EU referendum phone polls for two months and as can be seen in the table, they have numbers which are totally out of line with with all the online surveys.
First out was ComRes with its poll for Open Europe followed by Ipsos MORI with its regular monthly Stanadrd survey.
The phone-online divide is a feature that’s been there since the general election when the CON majority made the referendum something that was going to happen.
Quite why there should be this huge chasm is hard to say but a close look at the datasets sees the oldies age segments responding very differently if they are called at random in a phone poll. In this latest ComRes survey for Open Europe there was a LEAVE lead of just a single point. In the only polls we are seeing gaps of 30%+ in this age segment.
Which is right? I’ve no idea. Maybe we have a panel affect with the internet surveys or shy BREXIT supporters with the phone polls. This is very hard to say.