The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at the wrong numbers

The GE2015 polls weren’t wrong – we were just looking at the wrong numbers

Leader ratings have proved a far better guide to election outcomes A month today, on January 19th, the investigation into what went wrong with the general election polling will be announcing its findings at a special event in London. No doubt all sorts of tweaks will come out of it but the main factor. I’d argue, is that we (and I include myself in that) paid far far too much attention to the voting intention numbers. In almost every case…

Read More Read More

There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left before Britain decides

There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left before Britain decides

Big news from the EU talks is that the referendum might be just 6 months away https://t.co/QNPB9pc8nC pic.twitter.com/L0v0Ilt0CC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2015 Cameron says he’s “on the way to a deal” It has been known for sometime that Dave/George want to get the referendum out of the way as soon as possible and overnight the news from the Brussels talks is that the favoured timing could be June or July. The last thing ministers want is for…

Read More Read More

Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.

The Donald Brind column: From a Labour perspective “I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw. The Shavian quote was offered to me by the wise and erudite Lewis Baston after I recounted to him a Twitter spat with blogger Dan Hodges. For the avoidance of doubt, Hodges, who hails from a Labour family but earns his living from the Telegraph and the Spectator, is…

Read More Read More

If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

If it’s Farage versus Carswell then there can only be one outcome – the current leader will win

Just 15 months ago – happier days for Mr Farage and Mr Carswell pic.twitter.com/HMdFTxPvsZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2015 Nigel Farage on Douglas Carswell: "We have got one person going round the country giving the impression UKIP is split – that can’t go on." — Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) December 18, 2015 UKIP could be about to become a ZERO MPs party The morning has been dominated by Douglas Carswell’s comments in a BBC interview about his leader, Nigel…

Read More Read More

The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1

The PB/Polling Matters Christmas Special Podcast – Part 1

The lessons from 2015 In part one of a two-part Christmas special Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Rob Vance to look back at the year that was 2015 and discuss what Polling Matters has learned along the way. Key areas discussed include: 1) Where the polls went wrong and the impact polling had on the General Election. 2) Why Keiran thinks developments in Scotland are the big story of the year 3) Why do governments change so infrequently…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

Gogarth (Con defence) on Conwy Result: Conservative 318 (42% +12%), Labour 187 (25% -3%), Plaid Cymru 167 (22% +10%), Liberal Democrat 49 (7%), Independent 28 (4% -26%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 131 (17%) on a swing of 7.5% from Labour to Conservative Kensal Green (Lab defence) on Brent Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 56, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2014): Embooldened denotes elected Labour 1,819,…

Read More Read More

The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

Chart showing latest @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/P4d6CvaLy9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Sharpish drop in Corybn's @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings amongst LAB voters pic.twitter.com/J0ANmElSjr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 Via @robfordmancs . Net MORI satisfaction ratings after 3 monthsFoot -21Kinnock + 13Smith + 12Blair +27 Brown + 18Ed M + 1 Corbyn -17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2015 LAB gets closer in Mail ComRes phone pollCon 37 (-3) Lab 33 (+4) UKIP 11 (nc)…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey

An unusual voting question approach was used so difficult to make comparisons @LordAshcroft #EUref poll didn't ask simple question but this – pic.twitter.com/XEEvw4dWyV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2015 The past 24 hours has seen a glut of EU referendum polling with the latest, overnight, being a 20k sample online poll from Lord Ashcroft. Lord Ashcroft’s post on the survey, linked to above, is well worth reading because it goes into far more than just referendum voting intention. On…

Read More Read More