PB’s “Labour insider”, Henry G Manson, marks your card for the next leadership contest

PB’s “Labour insider”, Henry G Manson, marks your card for the next leadership contest

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Jarvis & Nandy are now the value choices for next leader Last Saturday at the annual Fabian Conference the headline speaker was Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. However one of the more interesting debates at the event was Dan Jarvis, Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer speaking alongside each other. There’s a high chance that one of those three will be the next leader of the Labour Party and the Fabians knew it. I first picked out Lisa Nandy in September 2010 in…

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PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Mike Smithson

PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Mike Smithson

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On this week’s podcast Keiran discusses the initial BPC Polling Inquiry findings with Mike Smithson. Keiran explains some of the findings and why voting intention polls are not the same as public opinion polls. Mike argues that the polls being wrong shaped the General Election result and we discuss where polling goes from here and whether polling could face another crisis over the E.U. referendum result. Keiran and Mike also discuss the U.S. presidential race. Keiran argues we are underestimating…

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Six council by-elections tonight – 2 CON, 2 LAB, SNP & UKIP defences)

Six council by-elections tonight – 2 CON, 2 LAB, SNP & UKIP defences)

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Bushey North (Con defence) on Hertfordshire Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Labour 15 (Conservative majority of 15) Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 995 (44%), United Kingdom Independence Party 524 (23%), Labour 437 (19%), Liberal Democrats 321 (14%) Candidates duly nominated: David Hey (UKIP), Shailain Shah (Lib Dem), Jane West (Con), Seamus Williams (Lab) “In Hertford, Hereford and Hampshire, hurricanes hardly ever happen!” to quote the phrase that Professor Higgins used…

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The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eyes of primary voters irrespective of their validity

The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eyes of primary voters irrespective of their validity

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Salon Trump now Betfair favourite to win Iowa An ongoing issue for Cruz has been whether the fact that he was Canadian born makes him ineligible to serve as President. The constitution lays down that the office holder has to be a “natural born” American. There are many legal views on this, read the article linked to above, and it would probably end up in the Supreme Court. The question at this stage just before the primaries start is not…

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New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

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Pew Research How the race has become totally polarised The above chart has just been published by the excellent Pew Research and is in many ways a US equivalent to the “good PM” ratings that we see in the UK. I think these numbers are worrying for both front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Hillary doesn’t have the positive levels that her team would be hoping for while for Trump it us the negative findings that are the most…

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Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

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A possible guide to EU referendum polling? As we all know with the final polls there was very little difference between those that carried out their fieldwork by phone and those that did it online. But this was very much out of keeping with what had happened throughout the formal campaign. The chart above illustrates this graphically. 70% of the phone polls had CON leads against just 26% of the online ones. At the same time 56% of the online…

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If indeed it was “herding” who can blame the pollsters?

If indeed it was “herding” who can blame the pollsters?

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So much rests on the final General Election poll I like the above chart from yesterday’s polling investigation presentation which does suggest that deliberately or not the overall affect was that a pattern that appeared like herding happened. I don’t blame the pollsters. So much is stake with their final election polls. It is something they can be judged on for the years that follow. Perhaps we need a more sensible approach to polling generally. As I’ve stated GE2015 has…

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Now the talk is of a Donald Trump Sarah Palin ticket

Now the talk is of a Donald Trump Sarah Palin ticket

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You can get her at 5/1 as GOP V-P nominee With only 11 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the former Governor of Alaska and 2008 VP candidate, Sarah Palin, flew into the state last night and endorsed Donald Trump for the Presidency. This is the first state to decide and where the property billionaire turned TV star, Donald Trump, is competing now in second place in most polls. In the betting Ted Cruz remains the favourite to win…

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