Leader ratings side by side: How JC’s doing against DC generally & with party supporters

Leader ratings side by side: How JC’s doing against DC generally & with party supporters

The next general election, of course is unlikely to be between Corbyn’s LAB and Cameron’s CON. The latter has made his exit intentions partially clear though we don’t know whether it’ll be before the election or afterwards. There’s doubt on the Labour side as well. Interestingly in recent days PB’s two LAB post writers, Henry G and Donald Brind, have both suggested that they don’t thing Corbyn will be there at the election. Whatever the chart above can only be…

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The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the pollsters did worse than the British ones at GE2015

The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the pollsters did worse than the British ones at GE2015

Many punters lost a lot of money that night One of the great nights on PB was the New Hampshire primary in January 2008. It came a week after the Iowa caucuses where Obama pulled off a significant victory. Interest was intense as one of the two main parties look set to be the first in US history not to select a white man as nominee. Following Iowa the media narrative was all on Obama and the final polls for…

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The changing politics of Northern Ireland

The changing politics of Northern Ireland

Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks on the unknown First Minister Part of the United Kingdom got a new leader earlier this month.  You probably missed this: most people did.  Following the usual tortuous process that its politics always seems to entail, Northern Ireland now has a new First Minister.  Arlene Foster took over as First Minister (the first woman to hold that role in Northern Ireland) on 11 January 2016.  She is also the first female leader of the…

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Donald Brind says a challenge to Corbyn’s leadership is now a “virtual certainty”

Donald Brind says a challenge to Corbyn’s leadership is now a “virtual certainty”

Reflecting on a dispiriting week for the red team Corbyn’s tent suddenly looks a lot smaller after the loss of policy chief Neale Coleman.  a big loss.  “If you want them to eat chicken, don’t lay out a buffet”. That’s a favourite piece of advice from a Lefty friend who I work with offering training in media skills to progressive folk in the Labour movement and charities. The point of the advice is — focus on your key message and don’t get…

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Electoral reform might not be the panacea the left hope it is

Electoral reform might not be the panacea the left hope it is

If the 2015 general election had been fought under PR, the Tories would most likely still be in government (probably in coalition with UKIP) There’s a very interesting story in today’s Independent on Sunday. Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives. Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP a close ally of Mr Corbyn who is acting…

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The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

The polling inquiry should have considered alternatives to standard voting intentions While everybody else has been obsessing about voting intention numbers I’ve been looking at how the pollsters did with their lead rating last May and the big picture is in the chart above. This shows the percentage in each of the samples that gave positive ratings to Mr. Cameron and Mr. Miliband. In the final few days five pollsters asked leader rating questions and the results are featured above….

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The very idea of President Sanders – seriously?

The very idea of President Sanders – seriously?

Can he beat Clinton and if so, the Republican? In contrast to all the interest that the Republicans have delivered in their pre-primary contest, the Democrats’ affair has been a low-key, staid affair so far: two candidates plus an also-ran, of which one has been an overwhelming favourite for a long time, backed with huge financial and political muscle; the other, a 74-year-old self-described socialist who has never even run for election as a Democrat before. It ought to be…

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Local By-Election Results : January 21st 2016

Local By-Election Results : January 21st 2016

Bushey North (Con defence) on Hertfordshire Result: Conservative 881 (53% +9%), Liberal Democrat 333 (20% +6%), Labour 286 (17% -2%), UKIP 176 (11% -12%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 548 (33%) on a swing of 1.5% from Liberal Democrat to Conservative Thatto Heath (Lab defence) on St. Helens Result: Labour 964 (71% -4%), UKIP 182 (13%, no candidate in 2012), Conservative 147 (11% +4%), Green Party 62 (5% -3%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 782 (58%) on a…

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