Many punters lost a lot of money that night
One of the great nights on PB was the New Hampshire primary in January 2008. It came a week after the Iowa caucuses where Obama pulled off a significant victory.
Interest was intense as one of the two main parties look set to be the first in US history not to select a white man as nominee.
Following Iowa the media narrative was all on Obama and the final polls for the New Hampshire primary are shown in the chart above. The Real Clear Politics average close with Obama on 38.% and Clinton on just 30%. The Clinton campaign looked doomed and all the money piled against her.
Those who backed Obama at very tight odds on prices lost a lot if money. One of the site’s biggest gamblers told me it was his worst political betting ever.
For as it turned out Hillary got 39% to Obama’s 36.4% which was a bigger miss than what we saw in the UK on May 7th last year.
Close analysis of what happened found that women were significantly more likely to have chosen Clinton over Obama and, more importantly, were more likely to vote.
What this says about the coming contest against Bernie Sanders I don’t know. He has the benefit of being from the neighbouring state and there’s a long history of New Hampshire favouring such contenders.