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Concern about the economy at highest level since 2013

28/1/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Economic optimism at lowest level since 2013 pic.twitter.com/sjhyhQ1YOc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2016 This could hinder the BREXIT campaign? The January Ipsos-MORI economic optimism index is out and shows the lowest figure since 2013. This has been a regular tracker from the firm for decades and is calculated by taking the percentage of those saying they are optimistic about the economy and deducting those who are negative. In the current context in the run up to the EU…

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Iowa and New Hampshire polling round-up

27/1/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/pastfrontrunner/status/692356370159570944 Suffolk University poll has Bernie well ahead in New Hampshire Sanders 50, Clinton 41, O'Malley 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 CORRECTIONMonmouth University Iowa Poll Trump 30%,Cruz 23%, Rubio 16% Carson 10%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 And the poll that I’ll be basing my Iowa bets on… Final Poll coming Saturday evening. Stay tuned. https://t.co/2gfxm6xG5X — J. Ann Selzer (@jaselzer) January 27, 2016

If all goes to Dave’s plan British voters will be filling in one of these in just 144 days

27/1/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What the #EUref ballot paper looks like pic.twitter.com/3fyOYNUmer — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 The online-phone EURef poll gap remains REVISED #EURef polling table showing all published surveys over past 2 months pic.twitter.com/ogzBOR97h5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2016 A picture of the actual referendum ballot paper was featured on the BBC Daily Politics this morning. The pic above is a screen shot. There’s something about seeing a ballot paper that makes an election very real and all…

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Trump’s big pre-Iowa gamble: pulling out of Thursday’s TV debate in ongoing row with Fox News

27/1/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How are caucus voters going to view this? The big overnight WH2016 news is that Donald Trump has pulled out of the final TV debate before voting actually starts in the elongated process to choose the party nominees The Fox News clip above is how the most watched news channel by GOP voters is reporting the decision. This inevitably recalls memories of his spat in August last year with Fox News presenter Megyn Kelly when she sought to take him…

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The turnout problem facing Bernie Sanders as seen by the NYT’s Nate Cohn

26/1/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The turnout challenge facing Sanders as seen by Nate Cohn. NYThttps://t.co/VlNiAMKJlq pic.twitter.com/69oECgsHik — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2016 The full article is here

Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday

26/1/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Cruz makes last minute plea to pastors in the state There’s an increasing consensus which I buy into that if Trump wins in Iowa next Monday then he’ll be almost unstoppable. The organisational challenges at the state’s caucuses are formidable. Probably only about 12% of those eligible take part in the complex process of attending a two hour meeting in one of the 1,600 precincts where caucus meetings are held. Generally the best guide as to whether someone will participate…

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Corbyn: Alastair Meeks looks at the options for Labour’s right wing

26/1/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Believing six impossible things before breakfast Jeremy Corbyn has come in for much criticism from the right of the Labour party since he took over as leader of the Labour party.Â He has been accused of indulging in fantasy politics, of deluding himself that the British public will ever elect a party on such a left wing prospectus and of surrounding himself with third raters whose only virtues are their impeccably socialist credentials.Â But the Labour right is just as…

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A week to go until Iowa: the Great American Gamble – to Trump or No Trump

25/1/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

7 days till Iowa. How the polls did in previous electionshttps://t.co/d28erYivkh pic.twitter.com/iTFgroQNXF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016 ARG Democratic poll in Iowa has Sanders 48% Clinton 45%GOP race Trump 33% Cruz 26%https://t.co/L1APSJBxtl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016