Economic optimism at lowest level since 2013 pic.twitter.com/sjhyhQ1YOc
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2016
This could hinder the BREXIT campaign?
The January Ipsos-MORI economic optimism index is out and shows the lowest figure since 2013. This has been a regular tracker from the firm for decades and is calculated by taking the percentage of those saying they are optimistic about the economy and deducting those who are negative.
In the current context in the run up to the EU Referendum everything will be judged on its likely impact on that crucial vote which looks set to take place this year.
There is an argument that people will be less reluctant to rock the boat by voting for change at a time of uncertainty.
If that is correct, and I’m only partially convinced, then BREXIT needs perceptions about the economy to be positive at the time of the vote.
From all the indications we know that security in latest its forms is going to be a big theme from Cameron/Osborne in the referendum campaign in order to ensure that the UK stays in the EU.
Some BREXIT commentators have suggested that Osborne will endeavour to play on economic worries in order to create the atmosphere in which people will be reluctant to vote LEAVE.
It’s a fair point. Osborne/Cameron are in power today because of their ability to raise fears about what would happen if the “other lot” got in. Maybe it’s the same strategy for the referendum except the other lot is not LAB but those wanting out of the EU.