Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday
Cruz makes last minute plea to pastors in the state
There’s an increasing consensus which I buy into that if Trump wins in Iowa next Monday then he’ll be almost unstoppable.
The organisational challenges at the state’s caucuses are formidable. Probably only about 12% of those eligible take part in the complex process of attending a two hour meeting in one of the 1,600 precincts where caucus meetings are held.
Generally the best guide as to whether someone will participate is whether they’ve done so before and polls that weight by this have historically got the outcomes closest. The polls where Trump has been doing best are those where this isn’t a factor.
Another key element in Iowa is how the contenders are viewed by the churches. Santorum squeezed a narrow surprise victory there four years ago after getting the backing of key religious leaders.
So it isn’t any surprise that Ted Cruz has been doing a lot of work in the time remaining with pastors and others able to influence congregations.
The Brady Report is reporting this about how Cruz is pitching himself to this key group.
In video obtained exclusively by The Brody File, Ted Cruz says it’s up to Iowa pastors to stop Donald Trump from winning the Iowa Caucus or the billionaire from New York will be, unstoppable. “If Donald wins Iowa, he right now has a substantial lead in New Hampshire, if he went on to win New Hampshire as well, there is a very good chance he could be unstoppable and be our nominee,†Cruz told pastors at a private meeting in Cedar Rapids this afternoon. Cruz also pleaded with them to support him for one very notable reason. “Even if you’re thinking about another candidate, the simple reality is there’s only one campaign that can beat Trump in this state, and if conservatives simply stand up and unite, that’s everything.â€
Will that work? Hard to say.
We’ll get a better idea late Saturday night when the final Des Moines Register poll is due out. If that’s pointing to Trump it will be a wider indicator than just Iowa.