William Hill say nobody’s bet on Osbo since the Google tax row broke out

William Hill say nobody’s bet on Osbo since the Google tax row broke out

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https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/693423092916473857w We don’t know how many bets on Osborne that they’d normally expect in the same period so it’s quite hard to assess the William Hill statement. In any case you don’t get many punters this far out from an outcome (it could be 2019/2020) ready to lock up their cash on a favourite with tighter odds than 2/1. The point remains however: the Google deal hurts the Chancellor because so little money appears to be forthcoming. Cameron’s attempt to…

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The key EURef issue: Whether Cameron can secure a deal that’s saleable

The key EURef issue: Whether Cameron can secure a deal that’s saleable

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David Herdson questions whether minor benefit reform will be enough When Cameron gave his Bloomberg speech three years ago, kicking off his whole renegotiation policy, he set out a vision of the European Union he believed was fit for the twenty-first century, built on five principles: 1. Competitiveness. In particular, completing the Single Market in services, energy and digital, and “addressing the sclerotic, inefficient decision-making” and “creating a leaner, less bureaucratic Union”. 2. Flexibility. He mentioned doing away with ‘ever…

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A second EURef phone poll has REMAIN with huge lead

A second EURef phone poll has REMAIN with huge lead

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Applying ComRes's post-GE2015 turnout model the latest poll showsREMAIN 57%LEAVE 34%DK 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 Updated table of latest #EURef polls including today's new phone surveys pic.twitter.com/0S0O3VPYAK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 ComRes/Mail phone poll finds 44% saying economy would do better staying in EU with 23% saying better out — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 CON lead up 1 in latest ComRes/Mail phone pollCon 37% (NC)Lab 32% (-1)LD 6% (-1)UKIP 12% (+1)Green…

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Local By-Election Review : January 2016

Local By-Election Review : January 2016

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Local By-Election Review : January 2016 Botchery on Carlisle: Ind GAIN from Lab on a swing of 10.5% from Lab to Ind Launceston Central on Cornwall: Lib Dem HOLD on a swing of 9% from Lib Dem to Con Bushney North on Hertfordshire: Con HOLD on a swing of 1.5% from Lib Dem to Con Thatto Heath on St. Helens: Lab HOLD on a swing of 8.5% from Lab to UKIP Hamilton North and East on South Lanarkshire: SNP HOLD…

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UPDATED With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ipsos MORI lead drops 7%

UPDATED With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ipsos MORI lead drops 7%

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CORRECTION #EURef polling chart. Earlier Tweet on Ipsos-MORI not based on actual question. This one is pic.twitter.com/5CpxRZhGhU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 @IpsosMORI chart showing last 3 #EURef polls. So REMAIN lead lower than December but larger than Oct 2015 pic.twitter.com/c3CfChXsbI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2016 The gap down but still larger than last October Given the vast bulk of EURef polling has been from online surveys it’s great to see that Ipsos-MORI appears to now…

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Corbyn drops to his lowest level yet amongst those who voted LAB last May

Corbyn drops to his lowest level yet amongst those who voted LAB last May

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More numbers, no doubt, for Corbynistas to remain in denial about Every month for more than 40 years the pollster Ipsos MORI has carried out leader ratings. The question format has been the same simply asking people whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the leaders. As I’ve argued and shown these ratings have proved to be a better indicator of General Election outcomes than standard voting intentions. If we’d have followed these at GE1992 and GE2015…

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Local By-Election Preview : January 28th 2016

Local By-Election Preview : January 28th 2016

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Parkfield and Oxbridge (Lab defence) on Stockton-on Tees Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 32, Conservatives 13, Independents 10, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 8) Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,608, 1,501 (46%) Conservative 950, 887 (27%) Independent 419 (12%) Green Party 285 (8%) Liberal Democrats 192, 179 (6%) Libertarian 58 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Peter Braney (UKIP), Drew Durning (Lib Dem), Allan Mitchell (Lab), Stephen Richardson (Con) Stockton on Tees…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast looks ahead to Iowa and the importance of turnout

This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast looks ahead to Iowa and the importance of turnout

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Just 3 days to go before voting starts On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran speaks to Will Jordan from YouGov in the U.S. They discuss the state of the 2016 race as it stands, the importance of turnout at next week’s Iowa caucuses (and what that might mean for Trump and Sanders) plus how important Iowa will be for the wider race in such an apparently unconventional election cycle. You can follow Keiran at@keiranpedley and Will at @williamjordann