We don’t know how many bets on Osborne that they’d normally expect in the same period so it’s quite hard to assess the William Hill statement.
In any case you don’t get many punters this far out from an outcome (it could be 2019/2020) ready to lock up their cash on a favourite with tighter odds than 2/1.
The point remains however: the Google deal hurts the Chancellor because so little money appears to be forthcoming. Cameron’s attempt to throw this back on the pre-GE2010 LAB government is getting a bit tired. There is a real sense of frustration out there about the tax activities of companies like Google.
The other thing in relation to Osborne’s leadership chances is that there’s a long record in the Tory party of the long term front runner not getting the crown.
I’ve got an all green Betfair book on the Tory leadership after laying Osborne when he was nearly evens and closing the bets when the price moved out.