As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in common with Boris – being overstated in the polls

As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in common with Boris – being overstated in the polls

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Real Clear Politics All but one of the Iowa pollsters had inflated Trump numbers: All had deflated ones for Cruz and Rubio One of the things that I’ve written about before here is that Boris gets over-stated by the polls when tested against real election results. It happened to quite a degree at the last London mayoral election and we saw a similar pattern overnight in the results from Iowa. The table above from Real Clear Politics sets the data…

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The EURef betting moves a notch to REMAIN following the latest from Tusk

The EURef betting moves a notch to REMAIN following the latest from Tusk

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We knew the renegotiation was a fudge, but even we are surprised by this… #LeaveEU pic.twitter.com/zHttpPoswx — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) February 2, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/694491947424153601 The EU Negotiations: Will what Cameron says is “substantial change” be enough? What a 24 hours. With all eyes and a lot of money at stake in Iowa we can now turn to the latest in Cameron’s EU negotiations and the publication of draft proposals from Mr. Tusk. It looks as though Cameron has made some progress…

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Rubio moves to odds-on overall favourite after strong performance in Iowa

Rubio moves to odds-on overall favourite after strong performance in Iowa

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Marco Rubio – the real winner in Iowa beating all expectations & running Trump close for 2nd place pic.twitter.com/nUnG7enalh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2016 Trump making his post Iowa speech pic.twitter.com/BUd2uBVCk7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2016 The Democratic race is a virtual tie pic.twitter.com/3NygNKruJv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2016

Introducing the Politicalbetting EU Referendum Polling Averages – split by mode. Online and Phone

Introducing the Politicalbetting EU Referendum Polling Averages – split by mode. Online and Phone

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Hover cursor over chart to see actual figures We all know that there is a huge disparity between current EU referendum polls with the phone surveys showing much poorer figures for the BREXIT than the online firms. I’ve been tracking this carefully over the past six months and am now introducing a polling average which is split into two. I can’t say for certain which is right so let’s look at them both. What might appear is that we’ll see…

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If Corbyn’s Labour has to have any chance it has to dent Osborne’s reputation on the economy

If Corbyn’s Labour has to have any chance it has to dent Osborne’s reputation on the economy

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Donald Brind: From a LAB perspective Labour’s unrelenting focus should be on the economy. Even before the mockery that he earned with misjudged tweet on the modest Google tax payment  the Chancellor George’s Osborne’s claims to competence have been fraying fast. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell made a good fist of his duel with Andrew Neil on Sunday Politics. To highlight Labour’s demand for transparency he has published his personal tax returns and will challenge Osborne directly in the Commons on…

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If Trump does win tonight in Iowa he’ll go into New Hampshire next week in an overwhelming position

If Trump does win tonight in Iowa he’ll go into New Hampshire next week in an overwhelming position

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Real Clear Politics New Hampshire polling average Tonight the first real votes will be cast in WH2016 Well we’ve got there at last. After months of speculation, polling and debates, the first state to decide in the long-drawn out nomination process, Iowa, will do so tonight. My guess is that we should be getting the first results in both GOP Democrat races after 2am tomorrow morning. The final polling points to Trump taking the Republican prize and Hillary just pipping Sanders…

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The sting. How George Osborne is tackling the deficit

The sting. How George Osborne is tackling the deficit

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Embed from Getty Images We’re all in this together, so David Cameron told us before the 2010 general election.  This assertion was received with derision by many outside the Eton-attending classes.  And sure enough, when the coalition came to power after the election, the impact of the deficit-reduction measures was felt most keenly by those at the bottom of society.  The Treasury explicitly targeted spending cuts over tax rises in the proportion of 80:20.  With most government spending being deployed…

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Leave could be making the same mistake Labour made at the 2015 General Election

Leave could be making the same mistake Labour made at the 2015 General Election

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The latest @IpsosMORI leader ratings which have Cameron as the best rated leader and Corbyn & Farage the worst. pic.twitter.com/P1Ds1t10Up — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 31, 2016 If the referendum comes down to a popular leader with economic credibility versus an unpopular leader without any economic credibility then there will only be one winner, again. In the most recent electoral events in the United Kingdom, the Scottish Independence referendum and the 2015 general election, the side that won was the side…

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