All but one of the Iowa pollsters had inflated Trump numbers: All had deflated ones for Cruz and Rubio
One of the things that I’ve written about before here is that Boris gets over-stated by the polls when tested against real election results. It happened to quite a degree at the last London mayoral election and we saw a similar pattern overnight in the results from Iowa.
The table above from Real Clear Politics sets the data out nicely and this is a key thing to take into account in the coming contests over the next five months.
One of the great elements about an election is that you have real data against which you can compare what the pollsters said was going to happen.
I know that the caucuses are not like normal elections such as the one we’ll see in New Hampshire a week tonight. Working out who is actually going to go to a caucus meeting is a massive challenge. We should expect the proper primaries to be better. In previous White House races most pollsters have kept away from the caucus states because of the complications.
Iowa only gets the intention attention that it does because it is first.