TonightÂ the first real votes will be cast in WH2016
Well we’ve got there at last. After months of speculation, polling and debates, the first state to decide in the long-drawn out nomination process, Iowa, will do so tonight. My guess is that we should be getting the first results in both GOP Democrat races after 2am tomorrow morning.
The final polling points to Trump taking the Republican prize and Hillary just pipping Sanders in the Democratic race and these two remain the strong overall betting favourites to win their party nominations.
But a huge amount can happen over the next six months. What looks certain after Iowa isn’t always a good pointer to which two will be fighting it out in the election proper on the first Tuesday in November.
What makes Trump’s position look so strong is how he’s doing in New Hampshire which votes in the first full primary a week tomorrow. The RCP polling average chart above shows how he has so dominated that race. There simply is no clear alternative amongst a huge raft of contenders to The Donald.
One thing to look out for tonight is how, comparatively, Rubio does in the Iowa caucuses. He has been moving up in the polls and could establish himself as the main opposition to Trump with a good vote tonight.
I’ve got positive betting positions on Trump, Rubio, and Cruz and I’ve made no changes since the DMR poll came out.