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Today voting begins in the Tory leadership election and some past quotes from bandwagon jumping Badenoch from the 2022 leadership election where she effectively endorses Labour’s current policy on the winter fuel allowance. If she becomes Tory leader it will blunt any Tory attacks on Labour’s winter fuel allowance policy because all Starmer et al have to do is use Badenoch’s words against her. I suspect these comments will go down very badly with the predominantly elderly Tory members. I…

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Being engrossed in a good book is one of life’s pleasures and if you don’t experience that regularly that then I pity you. TSE

Politico are reporting that Republicans are racing to plug a massive money hole — before it’s too late. The leader of House Republicans’ biggest super PAC told donors last month he needed $35 million more to compete with Democrats in the fall. Senate GOP campaign chair Steve Daines used his primetime speaking slot at the Republican convention to lament that massive spending from Democrats was keeping him awake at night. And his House GOP counterpart warned that their party’s challengers…

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Just 25% of the public say the Tories and Labour are similar which may ruin a few narratives and memes. TSE

Welcome to the first in a strictly limited series. Every Monday [1] for the next 9 weeks, I’ll be doing a rundown of the forecasts from the main poll aggregators and analysts [2] for the 2024 US elections. Hopefully this will be useful as a baseline and a reference point for everyone. Of the forecasts included:a) electoral-vote.com and Real Clear Politics are basically poll averages; RCP is included because it’s well known and often quoted, although there are very well…

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MPs start voting in round one on Wednesday, my expectation is that Mel Stride will be the first to be knocked out then followed by Dame Priti Patel. Then voting is paused until after the last four hold a beauty parade at conference in early October. TSE

An increase of support for an elected head of state from 20% to 25% is an increase of 25% (5/20 = 25%). My use of statistics is unimpeachable. TSE

As a lifelong Tory I get the feeling some of my fellow Tories are deluding themselves about the scale of the defeat. Yes Starmer polled a mere 33.7% at the election (but ignoring the Tories polled even lower), the result wasn’t as bad as the MRPs suggested, and well most Reform voters are really Tory voters in name, whilst ignoring the elephant in the room, the Lib Dems. As we can see from the below chart the gap between the…

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