As Andy Burnham speaks about the very real prospect of Brexit, Corbyn should be worried

As Andy Burnham speaks about the very real prospect of Brexit, Corbyn should be worried

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Brexit might mean a leadership challenge for Corbyn via @georgeeaton https://t.co/A3Wh0opYPV pic.twitter.com/Q59jGGHxOg — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 10, 2016 When Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary says ‘The Remain campaign is facing the “very real prospect” of defeat in the referendum in two weeks’ time as it fails to reach traditional Labour voters’ it is clear the Remain campaign has issues. Whilst it is clear in the event of Leave winning, David Cameron will voluntarily resign or the Tory Party will revert back to Papua…

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The real winner of the debate last night

The real winner of the debate last night

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Buy Leadsom, sell Boris pic.twitter.com/zc7VLIUXrs — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 To outshine Boris is a real achievement, at 33/1 Andrea Leadsom is still value to be Cameron’s replacement. To overshadow Boris Johnson in a TV debate, is an achievement very few have managed. For that alone she should be worth backing. Her pre political career is something that will appeal to many, especially if the country wants someone who isn’t considered to be a career politician. Going back to…

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Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -14 days and counting)

Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -14 days and counting)

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Basildon, Laindon Park and Fryerns (Lab defence) on Essex Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Greens 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9) Result of ward at last election (2013) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 2,277, 1,980 (37%) United Kingdom Independence Party 2,175, 1,684 (36%) Conservative 958, 784 (16%) Liberal Democrats 215, 187(4%) National Front 171 (3%) Green…

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The voters’ misconceptions could win this for Leave

The voters’ misconceptions could win this for Leave

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Voters think EU citizens make up 15% of the total UK population when in reality it’s 5% @IpsosMORI finds pic.twitter.com/5gmkamqAPC — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2016 This could help Leave win This one of my favourite bits of regular polling. Ipsos Mori have compared the perceptions of the voters to the reality.  As we can see the voters’ think there’s more EU citizens here than there actually are. This might explain why Leave are focussing so heavily on immigration in the…

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Would President Hillary Clinton inspire Labour to choose a female leader?

Would President Hillary Clinton inspire Labour to choose a female leader?

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Henry G Manson on the chances of Corbyn’s successor being a woman The Democrats have become the first party in the USA to choose a female Presidential candidate. At 4/11 to become the next President, Clinton has a good chance to be the first female leader of the Free World. Others might shrug about how ground-breaking it is to have a Hillary Rodham Clinton return to the White House – but it is significant. 44 out of 44 of country’s…

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The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

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On this week’s show the Polling Matters team take a break from Brexit to discuss events across the pond. Keiran and Rob are joined by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua to discuss Clinton vs Trump, the states Trump must win to get to 270 electoral college votes and who each candidate might pick as their running mate. You can follow Jon-Christopher at @jcbua Audio only version is here Keiran Pedley

Hillary Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders fights on after having his California dreams ruined

Hillary Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders fights on after having his California dreams ruined

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Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders intends to fight to the convention https://t.co/GxidqTD8Q6 pic.twitter.com/w27IG4g96g — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 Latest Dem delegate count, after last nights results pic.twitter.com/605hfPFjMU — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 A sign of Trump's lack of electability? https://t.co/ZMGUEOspot pic.twitter.com/FDaQageYfJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 The punters at Betfair think Remain has the same chance of winning the #EURef as Clinton has winning The White House pic.twitter.com/RO9jPtbcxk — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8,…

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A proxy bet for a Leave victory

A proxy bet for a Leave victory

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Brexit might kill Scottish nationalism stone dead the same way devolution did. Sometimes when you think the value on a particular bet has gone, and you have to look for a proxy bet elsewhere, with with the best price on Leave winning at 13/5 perhaps the backing the 5/1 on the next Scottish independence referendum happening before 2020 could be a good proxy bet. Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been saying on several occasions, “Scottish independence would happen within two…

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