A proxy bet for a Leave victory

A proxy bet for a Leave victory


Brexit might kill Scottish nationalism stone dead the same way devolution did.

Sometimes when you think the value on a particular bet has gone, and you have to look for a proxy bet elsewhere, with with the best price on Leave winning at 13/5 perhaps the backing the 5/1 on the next Scottish independence referendum happening before 2020 could be a good proxy bet.

Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been saying on several occasions, “Scottish independence would happen within two years if Scotland was at risk of being ‘dragged’ out of the EU.” My position in the past has been Scotland won’t vote for independence whilst the price of oil is substantially lower than the Scottish Government forecast it would be, however Brexit might ameliorate the risk of independence for Scots. As most Brexiteers seem to acknowledge a short term hit in the event of Brexit, thus Scottish independence would seem less riskier to Scots than it normally would.

Whilst I’m no fan of The SNP’s raison d’être, I do admire the abilities and talents of many atop The SNP, I can see Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon exploiting any political sclerosis at Westminster in the event of Brexit to further the cause of Scottish independence.

I’m going to back the 5/1 Ladbrokes are offering, but I’m still debating the 10/1 on Scotland becoming independent by 2020, I’d probably need longer odds, but some PBers might see value in it.


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