Evening round up of the main political betting markets
The Republican nomination The June 23rd EU Referendum Winner 2016 White House Race
Sentence first, verdict later. Rushing to judgement over BHS
Sir Philip Green potentially makes for a good pantomime villain. He has never gone out of his way to charm the public and he has contacts in elite political circles. His wealth is fabulous and flaunted. His tax management strategies have blazed across the front pages of the newspapers. And now his former flagship company BHS has gone bust, leaving a pension scheme that is half a billion pounds short, and he has taken large dividends from the company over…
Exactly six weeks to go to the day that Britain decides on its future in Europe
The polling, however, has been reduced to a fizzle After a period when referendum polls were coming out almost everyday there’s suddenly been a lull in the number of polls being published. It is now May 12th and just three surveys have come out where the fieldwork has taken place in May. All of them have been online. The last phone poll was completed on April 26th. Hopefully this is a temporary interruption caused by last week’s range of elections…
Following the SNPs loss of its Holyrood majority last week ex-party boss Salmond says the voting system unfair
Alex Salmond, whose SNP lost its Holyrood majority last week, moans about the unfairness of voting system. https://t.co/QPxrOSR3S2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2016 This from a party that got 56 of Scotland 59 Westminster seats last year on 50% of the vote
Guest Post: Summer 2016 might lead to a generational shift in the two main parties
Guest Post by Mortimer Summer 2016 could prove a watershed moment in modern British politics. April and early-May have already seen the incumbent leadership of the English Conservatives shown up in comparison to Ruth Davidson’s success north of the border, and the old guard of an apparently gaffe-obsessed Labour Party cheered by victory in London yet criticised by the triumphant Sadiq Khan. More pressure on the Conservative leadership is likely if, as the polls currently indicate, the referendum on June…
Almost all the online polls when tested against real results last Thursday overstated UKIP
As first revealed on #newsnight, online polls seem to be overestimating support for #Brexit https://t.co/zgTmJPLs7Z pic.twitter.com/Wahc54HTFc — Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) May 10, 2016 This looks like a good pointer to referendum polling Well done to Matt Singh for picking up this – how in the range of elections last Thursday the online pollsters across the board appeared to be over-stating UKIP. His analysis covers the London as well as the Scottish and Welsh elections. The details are in the chart…
Not surprisingly YouGov finds that on EU people trust those they most agree with
YouGov chart showing "trust on EU matters" from latest poll pic.twitter.com/vsB8AD8fHN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 10, 2016
Urgent question. David Cameron’s big mistake so far
As with any bureaucratic body, the EU pulses to a rhythm of regular meetings. The EU being a more complex body than most, multiple cycles of meetings are sinuously interwoven. Most prominently, at least four times a year, the Prime Ministers of the 28 member countries convene for the European Council. The most vital business of the day is dealt with at these summits. Anyone with experience of meetings knows that to control the agenda is to control the meeting….