A certainty – maybe not
With three months to go until election day, people all over the world are lining up to place their bets on who’s going to take on the role of the 45th president of the United States after Barak Obama’s two-term presidency. Up until now, the odds have been everywhere – Donald Trump may have started off with odds that would make you a millionaire if he was elected, but right now, the fact that he could soon be leading one of the most powerful countries in the world is both scaring and exciting millions of people, depending on which side you’re on. But, if the odds are anything to go by, Hilary Clinton is still in the lead, with the wife of former U.S. president Bill Clinton polling strongly during the move along the campaign trail, giving her a solid lead over Republican nominee and immigrant-proof wall-builder Donald Trump.
Is Clinton in the Lead?
It would be safe to say that Hilary Clinton is currently taking the lead, however, when it comes to political betting, it’s always good to remember that sometimes, elections can go a completely different way from how the majority of people envisioned. One of the best recent examples of this is the EU Referendum in the United Kingdom, with bookies placing massive odds on the public voting to leave – a ‘remain’ vote was definitely the favourite, a mistake which cost dearly as the 23rd June saw Britain decide to Brexit with a 52% majority vote. The CEO of Bookmaker Ratings, Paruyr Shahbazyan, said at the time “the shock of Brexit definitely surprised a lot of bookmakers. It’s likely the bookies will be setting tighter odds for the US election, just in case”.
When it comes to the U.S. presidential election, Clinton appears to hold a considerable lead in several of the key states, including New York and California – states which have the most and third-most electoral delegates. However, Donald Trump is currently reigning supreme in Texas, the state with the second-most electoral delegates.
Is the Gap Closing?
Although Hilary Clinton seems to be firmly in the lead, the Republican Convention saw the presidential odds begin to tighten. After Clinton’s extended period of being dominantly in the lead according to the odds, Donald Trump has started to close the gap and creep a little bit closer to being in the lead. And, the bad news for Clinton supporters is that whilst Trump’s odds have been rising, Clinton’s have been doing the exact opposite and falling. Of course, if your money is on Trump to win the presidential election, this is great news for you. However, let’s not forget about Republican newcomer Evan McMullin, a former CIA operative who has recently announced that he will be running for president as a conservative alternative to Donald Trump – great news for anti-Trump Republicans who were unsure of which way to vote.
It’s safe to say that this year’s presidential election in the U.S. will be a stand-off between billionaire media mogul Donald Trump and former First Lady Hilary Clinton, who will become the first female president of the United States if she is elected. It’s worth noting that Clinton’s odds have not yet fallen below those of Donald Trump, as her potential position as the first female president has incited millions of vote from women who want to finally see another woman in power.
On the other hand, Donald Trump was the only presumptive nominee for a month after Ted Cruz and John Kasich both suspended their campaigns within twenty-four hours of one another back in May. Although Clinton gained enough delegates to win the nomination before the Democratic Convention, her opponent Bernie Sanders vowed to take his campaign all the way to Cleveland, before losing the final primary by a huge margin in the District of Columbia on June 14.
The Presidential Race
This year’s presidential race has certainly proven to be one of the most interesting of all time, with many of the candidates defying the odds to win or lose at different points. From a betting perspective, Clinton has always been a firm favourite to win, however, Donald Trump, who’s now the bookies’ second favourite, was just a ludicrous long-shot when he first announced that he would be running in the election. So far, the race for POTUS has taught us one thing – anything can happen!
Who are you backing to win?