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Today Labour MPs are set to vote for return of shadow cabinet elections, but are they headed into a trap?

6/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

ICYMI LabMPs will vote tmrw on 'peace plan' to restore Shadow Cabinet elections. MPs warned the public hate disunity https://t.co/G1fooSoGjL — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) September 5, 2016 Labour’s rebel alliance may have come up with a way to castrate the Labour leader but they could be flying into a trap. Last night it was reported that Labour MPs are to vote on restoring Shadow Cabinet elections after a stark warning that they risk losing the party’s heartlands unless they…

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The single market versus immigration: what do voters really want from Brexit?

5/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Keiran Pedley examines recent Lord Ashcroft polling on what Brexit means to voters and explains why polling can only tell us so much about the deal Theresa May should ask for. As Westminster returns from holiday and the Labour leadership contest draws to a close attention is turning to Theresa May’s debut on the world stage and what ‘Brexit means Brexit’ will actually mean in practice. This week, Lord Ashcroft has produced some polling (conducted in August) that attempts…

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Joff Wild says Owen Smith will lose, Labour will fight brutally, but the party will come through its current pain

5/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Last week’s YouGov poll of Labour members, registered supporters and trade union affiliates giving Jeremy Corbyn a 62% to 38% lead over Owen Smith in the party’s leadership election will have surprised few, except – perhaps – Don Brind and Saving Labour (though how much they really believe the contest is too close to call is a moot point). As someone implacably opposed to Corbyn’s leadership, I have always expected him to win on 24th September…

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Why in spite of the YouGov selectorate poll Don Brind still thinks the LAB race is too close to call.

5/9/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Polling a changing and complex electorate is a huge challenge Mike Smithson doesn’t pay me to play safe. Or to put it another way, I write for the prestige of appearing on PB but Mike is more than happy for me to stick my neck out. And my neck has been right out there in the last few postings: suggesting that the race was “too close to call I said there was no solid evidence for making Jeremy Corbyn favourite….

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So 007, forget ISIS, your next mission is to destabilise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership

4/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

YouGov release more findings from their Labour leadership poll 1/8) Corbyn supporters don’t expect him to do as well as early Blair at a general election https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/Bi2tkRQd5z — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 2/8) Even if he loses the general election, most Corbyn supporters want him to remain leader https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/i60yycy2Ri — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 3/8) 55% of Corbyn supporters in the Labour selectorate believe MI5 is working against him https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/BAA0g742ge — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4,…

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Round up of 65+ polling on the man 56% of his backers think is going to lead LAB to a GE victory

4/9/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Different pollsters, different questions same picture A few days ago I Tweeted a 65+ breakdown from a recent poll and found myself being attacked for highlighting a small sample subset with all the inherent possibilities for distortion. Fair enough. So I’ve gathered the oldies data from the latest polling and put in into one chart with comparison on TMay. What’s striking is how similar the picture is from each of the surveys. The oldies simply haven’t taken to the party…

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Two nations: the Brexit chasm

4/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images Many people my age will have been captivated as children by André Maurois’s fable “Fattypuffs And Thinifers”, in which two brothers descend underground to find themselves in a world where the plump and the skinny are divided into separate realms. The two sides eventually go to war before a compromise is eventually reached. In the last few months Britain also has descended underground and the populace divided at the ballot box between Leavers and Remainers. Leave…

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Everybody salsa for a Labour King over the water

3/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Ed GlitterBalls pic.twitter.com/egI2UH4z9e — BBC Strictly ? (@bbcstrictly) September 3, 2016 Can Ed Balls use his appearance on this year’s Strictly Come Dancing to increase his chances of becoming the next Labour Leader? No, this isn’t a shameless attempt to make John Rentoul’s QTWTAIN list, again, but I do think appearing on this year’s Strictly Come Dancing might help Ed Balls reputation and popularity with the public and introduce him to the wider public that don’t follow politics intimately. At…

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