politicalbetting.com – Page 1036 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Will Jeremy Hunt be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2017?

3/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have brought back their market on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2017 in light of the announcement this week of further strike action by junior doctors. Normally I’m loathe to back 1/6 bets, however I’m prepared to make an exception to get a 16% return in a little under 4 months for the following reasons. i) On Thursday Theresa May described Jeremy Hunt as an excellent Health Secretary and…

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Last night’s by election results.

2/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Last night's council by-elections: LDEM gain from UKIP; CON gain from LAB; three CON holds https://t.co/dPyiwIqJ3O pic.twitter.com/tPm692aj7v — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 2, 2016 https://twitter.com/JolyonGreen/status/771505724186890240 TSE

YouGov poll finds the SNP regaining their majority at Holyrood but Scots don’t want a second indyref or to leave the UK

2/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

YouGov Holyrood seat prediction by @scotlandvotes SNP 71(+8) Lab 18(-6) LD 4(-1) Con 26(-5) UKIP 0(=) Grns 10(+4) pic.twitter.com/yxh8bCyYtR — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2016 A good poll for the SNP but not for Scottish Independence This morning The Times published a poll conducted by YouGov, the good news for the SNP, as YouGov notes The survey also looks at Holyrood voting intention for the first time since the Scottish Parliament elections in May, which provides better news for the…

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Betting on when we see the next UK interest rate rise

2/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

William Hill have a market up on when ‘Will the Bank Of England Base Rate next rise from its current (August 2016) rate of 0.25%?’ I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit, but my hunch is to go for the first half of 2017. My rationale is that many felt Mark Carney’s decision to cut interest rates was a mistake, especially in light of his remarks prior to June 23rd which indicated Brexit would lead…

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Some sobering polling for the Corbynites and tonight’s by-elections summary

1/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Our polling average update: Tories lead by eleven points, more than Cameron ever achieved against Miliband/Corbyn. pic.twitter.com/8kZu2c6YBx — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 1, 2016 Tonight's council by-elections: three Conservative, one UKIP, one Labour. pic.twitter.com/3DI52DLdBf — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 1, 2016 TSE

George Osborne, the modern day Winston Churchill?

1/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images If Brexit does turn out be an economic mistake then could country turn to the man who warned about the risks of Brexit? We’ve been here before, a charismatic former Tory Chancellor who warned the country and Tory party against a particular course of action, his counsel was ignored, he was exiled on the backbenches whilst his warnings initially proved to be incorrect. But in the fullness of time it was proved Winston Churchill was right…

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August’s Ipsos Mori issues index. Immigration & Immigrants regains top spot

1/9/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

A sign the voters don’t expect the Brexit deal to end the freedom of movement? The latest Ipsos Mori issues index is out. Ipsos Mori say After reaching a record level of concern in July following Britain’s decision to leave the EU, fewer Britons now show concern about the EU, according to Ipsos MORI’s August Issues Index. Three in ten (31%) now say they are concerned about the EU – down 9 points from July – although it is still…

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Nick Palmer on What next if Corbyn sweeps the board?

31/8/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images First, the YouGov poll is just one poll, which as we know could be quite wrong. But it fits with CLP nominations, widespread anecdotal evidence and the implications of the increase in membership. This article, for the sake of argument, will assume that the poll is correct. What happens next? First, what doesn’t happen. Widespread deselections are unlikely for the reasons set out by Luke Akehurst (a prominent non-Corbyn supporter) here: Note that deselection is difficult…

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