— TSE (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2016
A good poll for the SNP but not for Scottish Independence
This morning The Times published a poll conducted by YouGov, the good news for the SNP, as YouGov notes
The survey also looks at Holyrood voting intention for the first time since the Scottish Parliament elections in May, which provides better news for the SNP. At 52%, the party can boast a five point improvement on the 2016 Holyrood elections. The Conservative party has firmly secured its position as the second place party in Scotland, now standing five points ahead of the Labour party. Labour has suffered a seven point decline on its vote share in the 2016 elections, polling at just 16%, whilst the Conservatives are down one point at 21%. (These figures refer to the constituency vote.)
When you put the figures through the seat predictors, the SNP would regain the majority they lost in May’s elections, as evidenced in the tweet atop this thread, so far so good for the SNP, however when it comes to the SNP’s raison d’être, YouGov finds
The appetite for a second referendum will disappoint the SNP, however, with YouGov’s latest Scotland survey finding just 37% of Scots backing a second independence referendum and 50% opposed. Should they be successful in forcing another vote, the results would be almost identical to last time, with 54% of Scots voting against independence and 46% in favour.
With The Times reporting
Damningly, 49 per cent of all voters think that Scotland benefits economically from being part of the UK, while only 23 per cent think it is harmed. An analysis of the results shows that not even a majority of those who voted “yes” in 2014 believe that Scotland is hurt financially by the Union, while 18 per cent think it benefits.
Whilst these figures are poor for the SNP, they may change if oil revenues increase and/or depending on the Brexit deal Mrs May and her government achieves. My own view is that that Nicola Sturgeon and her fellow grand fromages at the SNP will only call a second independence referendum if they are confident of winning it, they know losing a second independence referendum in a short period really will settle it for a generation. I think calling a referendum that is vetoed by Westminster might be the best option for the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon in the short if the figures remain like this.
A Tory PM is performing 55% better than Labour's leader & 30% better than the Scottish Labour leader. Staggering pic.twitter.com/YbYHT1SPOj
— TSE (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2016
Probably the most interesting/amusing/alarming thing from this poll, depending on your viewpoint, is the leadership figures, Ruth Davidson is the best performing Scottish leader, although her lead over the First Minister is just 1%.
But for Labour, where to start, Theresa May has a positive rating, and is better performing by 55% and 30% (yes fifty five percent and thirty percent) than Jeremy Corbyn and Kezia Dugdale, leaders of the Labour Party and the Scottish Labour Party respectively.
Whilst there are a couple of caveats to these figures, the first one is that we’re at the apotheosis of Theresa May’s honeymoon, and there’s a high don’t know figure, these scores are staggering considering the state of the Scottish Tories and the dominance of Labour in Scotland a few years ago, these figures make a mockery of Jeremy Corbyn’s plans from last year to make a Scottish recovery the top of his priorities.
The full YouGov data is available is here.