Tonight’s by elections roundup
Tonight's council by-elections: three Labour defences and one UKIP https://t.co/WHPJJTOkMO pic.twitter.com/u2sm5eCUN0 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 8, 2016
Brace yourselves for the right wing version of Momentum
Ukip donor Arron Banks is formally canvassing Leave.EU backers abt starting a new movement. Says "almost 50%" keen.https://t.co/2dfNkOQGw5 — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) September 8, 2016 Rumours abound that Nigel Farage (+ key aides) will run Arron Banks' new movement, which will be a "right-wing Momentum" or 38 degrees — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) September 8, 2016 A UKIP split could allow Mrs May to go for a soft Brexit without experiencing an electoral cost. Today’s Times are reporting (££) Ukip’s most…
A couple of general election betting markets
Ladbrokes have a market up on if the Tory or Labour share of the vote will rise or fall at the next general election. On the Tory front it is no bet for me simply because whilst the Tory party is doing well at the moment the Brexit negotiations do have the potential to tear asunder the Tory Party like the Corn Laws did a couple of hundred years ago, which could potentially boost UKIP. On the Labour front if…
Can Smith win? What voters want from BREXIT & the doctors strike: All in latest PB/Polling Matters TV show/podcast
Keiran is back after a week off to discuss the latest polling and political developments with Katy Owen and Leo Barasi. As per the new format of the show each guest chooses some polling that they think is interesting and the group discuss what it means. Topics discussed this week include: 1) Leo reacts to Don Brind’s analysis on the last show that Owen Smith can still win and looks at Corybn’s impact on the Labour brand 2) Keiran looks…
The open field: Picking the next Labour leader
Embed from Getty Images Whatever the general public think of Jeremy Corbyn, the bookies must love him. He has been at the centre of one of the wildest betting markets I can recall, the Next Labour Leader market. He has not yet been leader of the Labour party for a year but already in that time we have seen wild oscillations. In that time, at least fifteen candidates have been traded on Betfair at prices of 10/1 or shorter (some…
If Corbyn wants to win the confidence of Labour MPs he needs to improve his performances in the House of Commons
If Corbyn had more success at PMQs he might improve his poor personal ratings Today PMQs returns after the summer recess, Jeremy Corbyn has been doing PMQs for nearly a year, and if anything his performances have become worse. His strategy of asking questions sent in from the public just doesn’t work at PMQs. Today he could put the government on the rack on any number of issues, the junior doctors’ strike or the NHS funding problems, or Number 10…
The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020
1921 – 1979 The six counties of Northern Ireland (created after the creation of the Irish Free State in 1921) have been returning MP’s to Westminster centuries, but it is only since 1950 when the concept of one elector, one vote was established with the abolition of the university seats that Northern Irelan’s MP’s really started to count. It is quite amazing to think that for twenty nine years (with the UK wide boundary changes in 1955 and February 1974)…
At the 2010 shadow cabinet elections no MPs with surnames beyond M got elected – an alphabetical discrimination classic
Those in the 2nd half of the alphabet hit by the “can’t be arsed” effect One of the extraordinary features of Labour’s last shadow cabinet election in October 2010 is that all the nineteen winners from 49 candidates had surnames starting with letters in the first half of the alphabet. So many highly competent MPs with names in the second half of the alphabet did not manage to garner enough votes to make it across the line. It’s a well…