An MPs behaviour – now the main trigger for Westminster by-elections
Compare the reasons with the 2005-2010 parliament
This should help Labour in Wellingborough
The i are reporting that After its spectacular by-election victories in October in Nadine Dorries’s former seat of Mid Beds and Chris Pincher’s former Tamworth constituency, Labour will be hopeful of overturning Bone’s Conservatives 18,540 majority. But the Reform Party is also hoping to make a statement of intent. As i reported on Monday, Reform is already posing a growing threat to the Tories in the polls. Now the party is hoping adopting Bone might give Rishi Sunak more to worry about. The 71-year-old MP…
Just two weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses
The first event in this year’s White House Race takes place in just a fortnight when the Republican Party holds its caucuses in Iowa. This is very different from an ordinary primary because what happens is that Republican voters have to attend caucuses at the local Precinct centre in order to meet and cast their votes for the candidate they want to be selected This requires a far greater commitment from voters than just popping into a polling station and…
PB Predictions Competition 2024
Picuture: John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain OK PBers, here’s a bit of New Year fun. Make your 2024 predictions against the following political, economic and sporting questions and win yourself a virtual silver trophy (it’s huge – about the same size as TSE’s modesty) and, more importantly, the kudos of being the Supreme PB Prediction Guru of 2024! TSE will be donating one hundred pounds worth of Amazon vouchers to the winner of this…
2024 opens with LAB a 75% betting chance of winning the election
It’s general election year and the plan on PB is to make the election betting the main story at the start of every week. As can be seen the money is going on the election actually taking place in Q4. I just wonder whether in the timing market that 2025 or later might be a good punt. Sunak might just want to hang on until the absolute end in the hope that something might turn up. Happy new year from…
Can you handle two massive elections at the same time?
In today’s Sunday Times Tim Shipman reports that When Sunak decides to call the election is becoming an issue of personality and nerve. Labour expects him to call a May election, despite the huge poll deficit. The prime minister has told Richard Holden, the new party chairman, to make sure the Tory machine is ready for then. Holding the budget earlier than usual could be a sign of a government preparing for a general election on May 2, the same…
Trump’s WH2024 bid looks set to be decided by the Supreme Court
A big question that will surely come before the US Supreme Court is whether Trump could be stopped from being on the WH2924 ballot because of what he did on January 6 2021 when there was an attempt to storm the Congress building in Washington which was overseeing the finalisation of WH2020 The big question is how much was Trump responsible for what happened and those against him are said to be building up a strong case that he was….
Sunak will be the first PM since Brown with the power to choose the election date
My money’s on October 24th One of the big political stories and betting markets in the new year will be the date of the UK General Election. What adds to the analysis is that Sunak (or his sussessor] will become the first Conservative Prime Minister since the repeal of the fixed term permanent act to be the one who alone decides on what the date should be. This is a very personal decision and if he gets it wrong it…