Free movement now appears to be at the heart of Brexit negotiations

Free movement now appears to be at the heart of Brexit negotiations

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Don Brind on what the assurances to Nissan might mean The new Select committee on Exiting the European Union, who will hold their first meeting on Wednesday, will have the opportunity to shape the debate on what Brexit actual means. The 21-strong committee is like to have a majority of members who backed Remain. Eight of the ten Tories, including Michael Gove, were Leavers but all five of the Labour members, including the chair Hilary Benn, were Remainers. Of the…

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Of all the Westminster constituencies affected by Heathrow Richmond Park is where there’s the most opposition

Of all the Westminster constituencies affected by Heathrow Richmond Park is where there’s the most opposition

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Maybe this is a reflection of Goldsmith’s campaigning Back in July, just after TMay took over at Number 10, Populus carried out a big series of phone polls in constituencies most affected by the then proposed expansion of Heathrow. The data is in the chart above. What is striking that in all but two of the seats polled there was net support for the expansion not opposition. Perhaps this is an indication of the huge contribution to the local economy…

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If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

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Clinton enjoys 15% lead in early voting Reuters/Ipsos poll finds https://t.co/xtM1L2Ozc9 pic.twitter.com/yoLU9ZNhlo — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 30, 2016 One of the reasons I like betting on US Presidential races is that there’s an awful lot of data made available before election day that allows you to see how people have voted that simply isn’t available in UK elections because of electoral law. This info helps influence my betting, so I like this from Ipsos and Reuters asking early voters how…

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Betting on who will win the US Presidential race in 2020

Betting on who will win the US Presidential race in 2020

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Embed from Getty Images Both Trump & Clinton have the potential to voluntarily be one term Presidents and that benefits their nominees for Vice President for the 2020 race. No, that headline wasn’t a typo, even before the winner of the 2016 race has been decided, Ladbrokes really do have a market up on who will win the 2020 White House race. I do wonder if both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, by choice, will be voluntary one term Presidents….

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Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get her over the line

Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get her over the line

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The race looks a lot tighter than it 24 hours ago What’s become almost the best guide to how WH2016 is going is how often it is Michelle Obama who is making the news. She was the star of the Democratic convention in August – an event that was certainly a turning point in the polling. Recently she’s been really forceful on Trump’s issues with women and last night made a big speech alongside Hillary in North Carolina which got…

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Conservative David Herdson wonders whether Theresa May’s meritocracy is actually a mirage

Conservative David Herdson wonders whether Theresa May’s meritocracy is actually a mirage

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Why the nomination for Yorkshire’s Tory MEP will be a key test Prime ministers are inevitably remembered for their great achievements and their great failings: Attlee’s welfare state, Thatcher’s Falklands, Thatcher’s Poll Tax, Blair’s Iraq, and so on. Theresa May’s first ministry will be defined by the success or failure of Brexit. If it’s a failure, her first ministry will be her only one. But beneath the towering achievements and epic failures, governments leave a much broader legacy in the…

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Local By-Election Results : October 27th 2016 and October Summary

Local By-Election Results : October 27th 2016 and October Summary

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Rhyl West on Denbighshire (Lab defence) Result: Lab 199 (48% +5% on 2012), Con 93 (22% -3% on 2012), Ind (Shone) 55 (13%), Ind (Webster) 42 (10%), Lib Dem 26 (6%, no candidate in 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 106 (26%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lab Total Independent vote: 97 (23% +6% on 2012) Collington (Ind defence) and Darwell (Con defence) on Rother Collington Result: Ind 818 (60% +20% on 2015), Con 393 (29%…

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Dramatic developments in the White House Race as FBI announces new moves on Clinton’s emails

Dramatic developments in the White House Race as FBI announces new moves on Clinton’s emails

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The FBI has launched a new investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server https://t.co/ExbTlmtWRq pic.twitter.com/HdRBRHLFTT — Financial Times (@FT) October 28, 2016 Hillary’s position on the betting markets slips Still watching how #Trump and #Hillary trade post FBI news. 12h graph. Note the large bet made 30m before news broke https://t.co/GVJbz6byu4 pic.twitter.com/0THvjROcx2 — BetData (@betdatapolitics) October 28, 2016 Wall St ‘fear gauge’ jumps 10% on new FBI Clinton probe https://t.co/pbZ5LJO9pu via @FastFT pic.twitter.com/LUvdpmDYYW — Financial Times (@FT)…

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