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Zac ahead 56%-29% in first Richmond poll and seems to be getting backing of the Standard

28/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

More from BMG poll. Goldsmith holds 74% of 2015 Con vote and would win even if there was a Con candidate (34 Zac / 25 LD / 20 Con) pic.twitter.com/XDTHUCNxOD — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) October 28, 2016 London freebie, Standard, which was overwhelmingly on Zac's side in Mayoral race, continuing positive coverage https://t.co/g950UuR859 pic.twitter.com/h7xHyBJhEr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2016

There could be double trouble for the markets if Trump does manage to win

28/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Adam Jepsen on how markets might reaction to Trump doing it At the moment, it looks like Hillary Clinton is firmly priced-in to be the next President and that might be a reasonable assumption. However, the markets appear to be far too complacent with regards to the risk of Donald Trump becoming President. In fact, during the whole campaign the markets have been unfazed by the Republican. While the US dollar did strengthen after Clinton had a solid first Presidential TV…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 27th 2016

27/10/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Rhyl West on Denbighshire (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Lab 18, Ind 12, Con 9, Plaid 7, Lib Dem 1 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 6) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 378, 361 (43%) Conservatives 106, 99 (25%) Independent 142 (17%) Plaid Cymru 125 (15%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 23,955 (46%) LEAVE 28,117 (54%) on a turnout of 69% Candidates duly nominated: Les Harker (Con), Alan James (Lab),…

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Labour’s “cunning plan” for the Richmond Park by-election

27/10/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Don Brind says its to inflict misery on Zac by helping him get re-elected “The man’s a disgrace. His office is just along the corridor from mine and I never see him. He obviously doesn’t want to be an MP. The thoughts of a veteran MP provide the perfect justification for Labour fighting the Richmond Park by-election despite the call from an interesting trio of young MPs for Labour to stay out of Zac Goldsmith’s “vanity project” Shadow Business Clive…

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The big hope for Trump now is that there will be a polling fail as large as in the UK at GE2015

27/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

But the signs from US early voting seems to back up the polls Twelve days to go before the US elects Barack Obama’s successor and so far at least the polling both national and in the key swing states suggests a return to the White House after a gap of 16 years for Hillary Clinton. This time, of course, as President not as First Lady. Following the wobble in August and September ahead of the first TV debate her polling…

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The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-election, UKIP’s leadership and whether LAB has a polling floor

26/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Detailed analysis of the issues and the numbers A huge amount has happened in UK politics since the last show two weeks ago and joining Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley) are Asa Bennett (@AsaBenn) of the Telegraph and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi) of noiseofthecrowd.com BREXIT still totally dominates UK politics and the programme seeks to look at its likely impact in the by-election and, of course, the impact on the differents part of the UK. Another area for analysis is Labour’s polling plight…

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In betting terms the Richmond Park by-election is one of the tightest races in decades

26/10/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Currently the bookies make Zac the favourite by a whisker I can’t recall the opening 24 hours of a political betting market where the outcome has appeared so tight. First the opening odds all made Zac the favourite. Then that moved to the LDs until news came through the the Tories would stand aside. That led to the Zac price tightening and for a short while you could get the LDs at longer than evens. No more. The best you…

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Situation critical. How the NHS could affect the path of Brexit

26/10/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

That £350m “commitment” could be damaging The debate in Britain about health spending is fundamentally dishonest. The left constantly press for large increases in spending. The government constantly boasts about ever-increasing spending at or above inflation levels. Voices on the right frequently argue for scaling back the health services that the public sector provides. None of them address what Britain needs. Britain’s health needs are growing at a rate far faster than inflation, even if one uses measures of healthcare…

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