But the signs from US early voting seems to back up the polls
Twelve days to go before the US elects Barack Obama’s successor and so far at least the polling both national and in the key swing states suggests a return to the White House after a gap of 16 years for Hillary Clinton. This time, of course, as President not as First Lady.
Following the wobble in August and September ahead of the first TV debate her polling position has looked strong. Extraordinarily she has been the betting favourite to be next President ever since the markets were opened immediately after Obama’s re-election in 2012. Now she is rated by punters as an 85%+ chance.
Of course polling can be wrong and we all remember that night eighteen months ago when Ed Milliband looked as though he might be taking a trip to the Palace the following day. It was not to be and interestingly the polling under estimate of the Tory position then was almost exactly the same as the gap now in the US national polls.
All the post election reports of GE2015 suggested that the postal voting was running strongly for the Tories. Information on this is very restricted in the UK and, indeed, it is illegal to reveal what data there is.
That is different from the US where we are getting quite a lot of news from various states which broadly back up the polls. It’s estimated that 40% of the votes in this election will have been cast before polling day.
But I’m not ruling anything out. I’ll only believe that Trump has failed when sufficient numbers are in on November 9th.