Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

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Can Trump really overtake Clinton to take the White House? In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/pGEkHMbrF2 — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) November 1, 2016 Heavy betting today on WH2016 with the money going on Trump – now a 27%, chance on Betfair. £2.5m wagered on this market alone pic.twitter.com/thHT0TZG1Q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016 The latest…

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Two new Westminster voting polls with the same picture: Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne’s party in dire trouble

Two new Westminster voting polls with the same picture: Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne’s party in dire trouble

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They used to blame the “plotters” – maybe they should look at their own hapless leadership Until September 24th the red team’s leadership had a ready made excuse whenever terrible polling numbers came out – it was all the fault of the MP plotters who had launched the confidence move against Corbyn in the aftermath of the referendum. Well Corbyn got re-elected in September and the LAB’s polling position is still appalling and miles behind where the lead opposition party…

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Clinton versus Trump: What men say their spouses will do and what women in partnerships actually say

Clinton versus Trump: What men say their spouses will do and what women in partnerships actually say

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Via @williamjordann Happy US families ahead of WH2016YouGov US: 33% of men say spouse supports Clinton compared with 45% who say they are pic.twitter.com/3XoNjKLW86 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016 The mug of a week tomorrow? pic.twitter.com/hlRuqgeUNd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016

Unless the betting is wildly wrong Paul Nuttall looks set to be UKIP’s next leader

Unless the betting is wildly wrong Paul Nuttall looks set to be UKIP’s next leader

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His first challenge: planning for the loss of all UKIP’s MEPs The UKIP leadership race is down to four with Paul Nuttall the 1/4 odds-on favourite. It is hard to see anyone beating him. The Merseysider has been a growing force within the party and the hope is that he will help UKIP challenge in Labour strongholds in the north. Certainly he’s an increasingly confident media performer and will set a different tone from Nigel Farage. Second in the betting…

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Free movement now appears to be at the heart of Brexit negotiations

Free movement now appears to be at the heart of Brexit negotiations

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Don Brind on what the assurances to Nissan might mean The new Select committee on Exiting the European Union, who will hold their first meeting on Wednesday, will have the opportunity to shape the debate on what Brexit actual means. The 21-strong committee is like to have a majority of members who backed Remain. Eight of the ten Tories, including Michael Gove, were Leavers but all five of the Labour members, including the chair Hilary Benn, were Remainers. Of the…

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Of all the Westminster constituencies affected by Heathrow Richmond Park is where there’s the most opposition

Of all the Westminster constituencies affected by Heathrow Richmond Park is where there’s the most opposition

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Maybe this is a reflection of Goldsmith’s campaigning Back in July, just after TMay took over at Number 10, Populus carried out a big series of phone polls in constituencies most affected by the then proposed expansion of Heathrow. The data is in the chart above. What is striking that in all but two of the seats polled there was net support for the expansion not opposition. Perhaps this is an indication of the huge contribution to the local economy…

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If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

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Clinton enjoys 15% lead in early voting Reuters/Ipsos poll finds https://t.co/xtM1L2Ozc9 pic.twitter.com/yoLU9ZNhlo — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 30, 2016 One of the reasons I like betting on US Presidential races is that there’s an awful lot of data made available before election day that allows you to see how people have voted that simply isn’t available in UK elections because of electoral law. This info helps influence my betting, so I like this from Ipsos and Reuters asking early voters how…

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Betting on who will win the US Presidential race in 2020

Betting on who will win the US Presidential race in 2020

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Embed from Getty Images Both Trump & Clinton have the potential to voluntarily be one term Presidents and that benefits their nominees for Vice President for the 2020 race. No, that headline wasn’t a typo, even before the winner of the 2016 race has been decided, Ladbrokes really do have a market up on who will win the 2020 White House race. I do wonder if both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, by choice, will be voluntary one term Presidents….

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