If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday

If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday

Comments 0 Comment

Gallup Gallup shows her with a stable and distinctive edge on favourability As PB regulars will know I’ve long been of the view that leader ratings are as good an indicator, and quite often better, to electoral outcomes than voting polls. With these those sampled are asked what they think not what they will actually do and there’s an argument for saying that you get a more reliable response. A precursor to actually voting for someone, I’d suggest, is having…

Read More Read More

Theresa May’s majority reduced even further as another CON MP quits

Theresa May’s majority reduced even further as another CON MP quits

Comments 0 Comment

Stephen Phillips to stand down with immediate effect pic.twitter.com/6j1y2LqwV4 — Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) November 4, 2016 The Sleaford GE2015 election result. Looks pretty solid for CON pic.twitter.com/R7HOlUkTyk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2016 CORRECTIONThe Tories had theoretical majority of 12 at GE2015. Zac took it down to 10 and Philips makes it 8 if CON don't hold his seat — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2016 Map of the Sleaford & N Hykeham constituency where CON MP has just…

Read More Read More

The government should resign if the Courts prevent it from invoking Article 50 by itself

The government should resign if the Courts prevent it from invoking Article 50 by itself

Comments 0 Comment

Brexit is too important to be left to the whims of unelected peers Why should an advisory referendum be binding? That is the question at the heart of the government’s determination to invoke Article 50 without going to parliament. It’s a difficult – but not impossible – case to argue, and one I will argue. It’s not a political argument. The case there is far simpler. Firstly, there is the risk that the process might be blocked altogether, were the…

Read More Read More

Tonight’s local by-election previewed by Harry Hayfield

Tonight’s local by-election previewed by Harry Hayfield

Comments 0 Comment

Banff and District (SNP defence) D and Inverurie and District (Lib Dem defence) R on Aberdeenshire Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 28, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 12, Independents 11, Labour 2, Green 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 7) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 76,445 (55%) LEAVE 62,516 (45%) on a turnout of 71% Scottish Independence Referendum Result: YES 71,337 (40%) NO 108,606 (60%) on a turnout of 87% Banff and District Result of ward…

Read More Read More

More polling showing that the Tories have nothing to fear from LAB or its leader

More polling showing that the Tories have nothing to fear from LAB or its leader

Comments 0 Comment

Maybe an early election is on the cards Its not been a good day for Theresa May. The decision on Article 50, if upheld by the Supreme Court next month, completely undermines her strategy for dealing with EU extraction. She’s going to find it much harder to follow her Home Office practice of keeping things very much to her close advisors without involving other people. Article 50 will get through but the parliamentary process could be a struggle with enormous…

Read More Read More

Government loses Article 50 case. Theresa May is the big loser not BREXIT

Government loses Article 50 case. Theresa May is the big loser not BREXIT

Comments 0 Comment

The woman who brought the Article 50 speaking outside the RCJ pic.twitter.com/Khpqh5w9jx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2016 Article 50 judgement not a rejection of BREXIT but of Theresa May's strategy for dealing with it. She is today's big loser — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2016 The actual judgement pic.twitter.com/rWvcebcrp1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2016 Government to appeal https://t.co/pFshDHasrm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2016 So what happens next?

What happened when Guido got into an after dinner discussion with Nigel Farage and Arron Banks on who’ll be President

What happened when Guido got into an after dinner discussion with Nigel Farage and Arron Banks on who’ll be President

Comments 0 Comment

So dinner; PM said she'd have Boris put down like a dog, Craig Oliver made her retch, bet @Arron_banks & @Nigel_Farage £20,000. G'night. pic.twitter.com/yliVFOUwnn — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) November 3, 2016 The agreed odds suggest he’s got a betting bargain Last night there were the Spectator Parliamentary Awards which, judging by the Tweets, turned out to quite an occasion with a series of extraordinary comments by amongst others Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. These will be fully covered…

Read More Read More

Clinton drops 32 on the Electoral College Votes spread betting markets

Clinton drops 32 on the Electoral College Votes spread betting markets

Comments 0 Comment

As regulars will know I like spread betting where the more you are right the more you win. Unfortunately the same formula works if you are wrong. As the Witney by-election I bought LD vote share at 25% and they got 30.2% which meant I got back 5.2 times my stake level and built up my balance with Sporting Index. Tonight I’ve bought Clinton ECVs at 302 because I think that the polling and markets have over reacted to Friday’s…

Read More Read More