What Corbyn’s re-election and the huge increase in membership is doing to LAB as an electoral force

What Corbyn’s re-election and the huge increase in membership is doing to LAB as an electoral force

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Ignore polls. Focus on real elections when real voters cast real votes We’ve just gone through a political period that hasn’t been experienced for 30 years. – three consecutive Westminster by-elections in CON seats. For one of the strange facts about UK by-elections in recent times is that vacancies, for whatever reason, have mostly occurred in LAB held seats and CON defences have been rare. So this period since October when we’ve had Witney, Richmond Park, and Sleaford + Hykehem…

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The party leaders most opposed to BREXIT appear to be the most secure in their positions

The party leaders most opposed to BREXIT appear to be the most secure in their positions

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William Hill betting – first party leader to go 2/1 Corbyn 5/2 Nuttall 7/2 May 6/1 Sturgeon 6/1 Farron Interesting market recently gone up at William Hill – which of the main party leaders as listed will be first to leave? Going through it: Corbyn is the clear favourite though , as has been discussed many times, there is no easy means to get him out. Labour’s system means that when they are stuck with a totally toxic leader and…

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Young Prezza to save old Jezza? the task facing Corbyn’s new speechwriter.

Young Prezza to save old Jezza? the task facing Corbyn’s new speechwriter.

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Andy Burnham backer drafted in “I’m not a PR man. I’m a campaigner,” so says Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s new speechwriter who began work last week. David Prescott, the son of former deputy Prime Minister Lord “Prezza” Prescott joined the Corbyn cause just as the scale of his challenge was being emphasised by Labour’s fourth place in the Sleaford and North Hykeham by election and the YouGov poll showing Corbyn was rated best Prime Minister by just 16% — trailing…

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Looking at Leigh in Gtr Manchester – the seat which Paul Nuttall is planning to contest in the likely by-election

Looking at Leigh in Gtr Manchester – the seat which Paul Nuttall is planning to contest in the likely by-election

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What are the chances for UKIP’s new leader? On May 4th, less than five months away, the MP for Leigh and twice failed LAB leadership contender, Andy Burnham, will be the LAB candidate for the newly created elected mayoralty of Greater Manchester – a position which was very much the brain-child of George Osborne as part of his “Northern Powerhouse” project. Ladbrokes make Burnham the 1/6 favourite to take what would be the most powerful elected mayoralty after London and…

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Never gonna give EU up. The latest Brexit legal challenge, this time to keep Le Royaume-Uni within the single market

Never gonna give EU up. The latest Brexit legal challenge, this time to keep Le Royaume-Uni within the single market

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Picture: Protester outisde the Supreme Court whilst the Article 50 appeal was being heard We’ve known each other for so long but it’s time to say goodbye to UK membership of the single market. Overnight it was reported Theresa May is facing a fresh legal challenge to her Brexit plans as campaigners prepare to petition the High Court for Britain to stay in the single market.  The claimants, including one Remain and one Leave voter, are seeking a judicial review…

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Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

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Ladbrokes’ odds imply it is a 9% chance that Labour poll below 20% at the next general election, with Corbyn leading Labour I think the chances are higher Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election, which could be less than a couple of months away according to press reports this morning. I think the value is backing sub 20% and here’s why (short answer = Jeremy Corbyn.) The YouGov poll earlier…

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Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

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Boris Johnson’s desire to be Prime Minister is why he will stay & try to make a success of being Foreign Secretary while Mrs May cannot sack him without causing problems for herself. William Hill have a market up on whether Boris Johnson will still be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January 2018. I think despite the events of the summer when Michael Gove’s transformation into the lovechild of Frank Underwood and Niccolò Machiavelli fatally damaged Boris Johnson’s chances…

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The final PB/Polling Matters Podcast of 2016: Looking back at an incredible and unpredictable political year

The final PB/Polling Matters Podcast of 2016: Looking back at an incredible and unpredictable political year

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On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters show Keiran Rob and Leo look back at 2016 and discuss the results from the recent survey of PB/Polling Matters listeners where more than 600 people took part. We discuss what our biggest shock of 2016 was, who the biggest winners and losers were and our defining moments of 2016. We also take some time to read out some comments from listeners and mull over what 2017 might bring. Follow the team…

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