Ignore polls. Focus on real elections when real voters cast real votes
We’ve just gone through a political period that hasn’t been experienced for 30 years. – three consecutive Westminster by-elections in CON seats. For one of the strange facts about UK by-elections in recent times is that vacancies, for whatever reason, have mostly occurred in LAB held seats and CON defences have been rare.
So this period since October when we’ve had Witney, Richmond Park, and Sleaford + Hykehem N is really quite unique.
One of the “facts” I used to quote is that from 1989 until June 2014 the Tories failed to retain a single seat whilst in government. For some reason by-elections and the Tories didn’t agree. That has all changed.
Even though the Autumn 2016 batch were in CON strongholds the Labour party of old would have seized the opportunity to give the Tories a bloody nose.
What should be worrying LAB supporters is that under Corbyn there seems no desire to fight.
The chart shows the average vote share achieved by the main four parties and the change.