The party leaders most opposed to BREXIT appear to be the most secure in their positions
William Hill betting – first party leader to go
2/1 Corbyn
5/2 Nuttall
7/2 May
6/1 Sturgeon
6/1 Farron
Interesting market recently gone up at William Hill – which of the main party leaders as listed will be first to leave? Going through it:
Corbyn is the clear favourite though , as has been discussed many times, there is no easy means to get him out. Labour’s system means that when they are stuck with a totally toxic leader and there is little that can be done. JC’s been helped by the huge influx of new members into the party since GE2015 who are total believers who really do take the view that he can lead them to victory. The only hope of the many anti-Corbynites is that he will see that his occupancy is destroying the party. He’s so vain that such a thought not likely to be forthcoming so 2/1 not a good bet.
Nuttall, has not been in the job long enough for us to know whether he’ll complete the 18 day “cooling off” period. Remember last leader Diane James. Non-Farage UKIP leaders have a habit of not surviving long. 5/2 possibly a good bet.
TMay’s honeymoon period appears to be over and her style of government is coming under increasing attack. Everything for her depends on BREXIT and how that shakes out. She’ll be blamed for generations if she gets it wrong. At the moment the weakness of Corbyn provides a sharp contrast and she should be OK in the short-term. 7/2 might be good odds.
Sturgeon succeeded Salmond after the referendum and looks pretty strong. She’s resolute on BREXIT and the only clouds on the horizon are over the SNP’s running of health/education and other Scottish public services.
Farron’s stance on BREXIT has been strong and clear even if it is not going down well in the west country seats that the party used to hold. It reminds me of the party’s opposition to the Iraq war which helped a decade or so ago. He’s almost certain to last to the next general election and beyond.