Ladbrokes’ odds imply it is a 9% chance that Labour poll below 20% at the next general election, with Corbyn leading Labour I think the chances are higher
Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election, which could be less than a couple of months away according to press reports this morning. I think the value is backing sub 20% and here’s why (short answer = Jeremy Corbyn.)
The YouGov poll earlier on this week had Labour on 25%, which admittedly is an outlier on the low side, as Labour’s share has been usually in the high twenties in recent months but it contains a finding that we’re seeing consistently, Theresa May has a staggeringly lead in the best PM poll findings with the age group that turns out vote.
This YouGov poll had Mrs May with a 66% lead over Corbyn with the over 65s. To put that into context at the last general election, David Cameron has a 26% lead over Ed Miliband in the best PM stakes in that age group, this indicates a shellacking of hitherto unprecedented proportions for a Corbyn led Labour party.
And that figure might widen further, those who think things can only get better for Jeremy Corbyn might be If the Tories can present Ed Miliband as a risk to national security, just imagine the fun they will have with someone as rich a back catalogue as Jeremy Corbyn, during the white heat of a six week long general election campaign Corbyn’s ratings might fall further.
Unlike in 1983 which is Labour’s nadir in recent general elections, Labour just had the Tories and the Alliance challenging them, at the next election Labour faces being squeezed by the Tories, the Lib Dems, UKIP, The Greens, and the Nationalist parties in Wales & Scotland, there’s many more options for a disgruntled Labour voters to go to. Whilst there was much to criticise Michael Foot on the policy front, no one could credibly question his patriotism, an atribute Jeremy Corbyn lacks, this could get very messy for Labour.