Will the yellows do better if the bill goes down? So here we are here. The closing session of debate at Westminster on Lords reform at which the ostensible issue is not the the issue. Both the reds and large numbers of the blues are trying to block making the upper house democratic not by addressing the issue itself but throwing a spanner into the works on how the commons should deal with it. Yet what very few people have…
What are the electoral lessons to be learned? The vote for London mayor is unusual in many ways, one of which is that because of the electronic counting system, all second preferences are identified and recorded. Last week, the full second preference breakdown for May’s vote was released, and is well worth analysing. Interestingly, most people who voted for Boris or Ken also cast a second preference despite the almost certain knowledge that their first choice would be in the…
Does 22.6% of the vote give a mandate? The above is a Tweet from Philip Davies – MP for Shipley where, I believe, PB guest editor, David Herdson is/was chairman of the local Conservative Association. The Davies point is a fair one but is he consistent? What was his reaction when his Dad, Peter Davies won the 2009 executive mayor race in Doncaster after coming out second in first round votes on just 22.6%. Doncaster Mayoral Election 2009 Name 1st…
Did Labour’s changes make cheating much easier? There’s a piece in my local Sunday paper today which makes my blood boil – a batch of 100 votes going missing in a council ward where about a third electors have applied to vote in this way. I’m sure this story is being repeated in many places:- “..A conservative council election candidate has claimed more than 100 postal votes, destined for homes in two streets just yards away from a polling station,…
Spetember 25 2010 – the moment EdM wins the Labour leadership Is this why AV winners are not seen as being legitimate? Aside from the build-up to next Thursday’s OES by-election two things have struck me most during the first week back after the holidays – the kicking that Ed Miliband seems to be getting in the media and the reactions here on PB to the elections for our poster of the year. The common element to both is the…
2010 seats with AV AV Actual CONSERVATIVES 282 307 LABOUR 262 258 LIB DEMS 79 57 SNP/PC 8 9 OTH/NI 19 19 Would the new system favour the big two? The table is one of a number of projections that have been made on what the outcome of the 2010 general election would have been if it had been held with the Alternative Vote electoral system. The numbers, from Rawnsley’s piece in the Observer, are based on polling data to…
Could the timing issue cause a coalition split? As we recall the concession that finally delivered the Lib Dems as coalition partners with the Tories was the voting reform referendum and the measure was included in yesterday’s Queen’s Speech. It’s this, of course, that the Blues found most difficult to swallow. The question that could cause a rift is when it takes place. According the the Guardian the LDs are pushing for it to be earlier rather than later with…
ICM Mar 20 data Voted in 2005 Aged 18 – 24 2010 CON voters 89.9% 3.7% 2010 LAB voters 81.6% 8.9% 2010 Lib Dem voters 88.9% 4.4% Is this a problem with having greater appeal to the young? The table shows two sets of figures from the latest ICM poll: the proportion who voted for one of the main parties in 2005 and the proportion of their overall support now coming from the 18-24 old age-group. This is relevant because…