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Category: Theresa May

The evening must read

The evening must read

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Great read on life inside the May bunker ft some true blue language https://t.co/TaYvPVLzV6 via @FT pic.twitter.com/8Yvs2buf50 — Jules Birch (@jules_birch) July 4, 2017 ‘Due to a terrible miscalculation of scale the entire battle fleet was accidentally swallowed by a small dog.’ – Douglas Adams That quote from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy probably best sums up the mess Theresa May and the Tory party finds themselves in due to Mrs May’s calamitous decision to call an early election and run…

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Don’t Diss the DUP. They could help put Labour into government

Don’t Diss the DUP. They could help put Labour into government

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If Martin McGuiness could work with the DUP why couldn’t Jeremy Corbyn? That rhetorical question works the other way round too. If Jeremy Corbyn is to see private prediction to Michael Eavis at Glastonbury that he could be Prime Minister in six months fulfilled he can only get there with the combined votes of all the non-Tory parties – including the DUP. By contrast those 10 DUP votes were enough to give Theresa May an effective Commons majority. On the…

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David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

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The big question is whether there’ll be a contest or will TMay hang on So TMay got her Queen’s Speech through the Commons with a majority of 14 thanks to the DUP and that probably reduces the immediate pressure on the PM. But without a majority it looks set to be an interesting time ahead. Unlike the CON-LD coalition the DUP obligation to vote with the Tories is limited to very specific issues and the chances are that there’ll be…

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If there was a spread-betting market on how many months Toxic Theresa could carry on I’d be a buyer

If there was a spread-betting market on how many months Toxic Theresa could carry on I’d be a buyer

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There’ll always be a reason why now’s not the time for her to go For a party that has a reputation for knifing failed leaders the Tories have been pretty pathetic so far with Theresa May. The deal with the DUP makes her position securer and there is always going to be a reason why deposing the woman that got the party into this mess should remain. Provided there are no defections or by-election losses her parliamentary position should hold…

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Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON leader betting to just an 8% chance

Ex-strong favourite BoJo slips even further in the next CON leader betting to just an 8% chance

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This appears to be between Davis and Hammond There’s been a lot movement on the next CON leader betting markets since we last looked at it a week ago. BoJo continues to decline and, indeed, has stated that he would not want it at the moment. The race, if that is indeed what we re watching, seems to be polarising around the Brexit Secretary, David Davis and Chancellor Philip Hammond. If there was to be an early contest, and that…

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After just 3 Tory PMs in 37 years we might soon see 3 Tory PMs in just 3 (yes three) years

After just 3 Tory PMs in 37 years we might soon see 3 Tory PMs in just 3 (yes three) years

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Very interesting story from @ShippersUnbound. https://t.co/uj2SdQkuuP pic.twitter.com/MaOQRAq3sO — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 25, 2017 The Sunday Times report Philip Hammond is being lined up to replace Theresa May as prime minister as part of an alliance with David Davis to deliver Brexit safely. Ministers said this weekend that Hammond should be anointed as leader before October’s party conference provided he vows to stand down after two years so that someone else can lead the Conservatives into the next election. A former…

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It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

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The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above. It all peaked in the first polling after she made the brave, and in retrospect disastrous, decision in April to go for a general election three years ahead of schedule. Then she was a walloping 39% ahead. As can be seen this has moved steadily downwards ever since and now she…

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The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the oldies are abandoning Mrs May

The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the oldies are abandoning Mrs May

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The narrative of what drove the shock result in the general election is becoming well established. Those in the younger age segments turned out to vote on a scale that hadn’t been anticipated and they were much more pro LAB than CON. The result was that instead of losing seats to CON Corbyn’s LAB made gains off the Tories, the SNP and the LDs on a scale that alongside a handful of LD gains from CON caused Mrs May to…

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