The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the oldies are abandoning Mrs May

The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the oldies are abandoning Mrs May

The narrative of what drove the shock result in the general election is becoming well established. Those in the younger age segments turned out to vote on a scale that hadn’t been anticipated and they were much more pro LAB than CON.

The result was that instead of losing seats to CON Corbyn’s LAB made gains off the Tories, the SNP and the LDs on a scale that alongside a handful of LD gains from CON caused Mrs May to lose her overall majority. This was in spite of the blues making gains off the SNP north of the border.

There’s one group of voters that traditionally the Tories have been able to regard as bankers – the oldies, those in the growing 65+ age segment.

In its only published post GE17 polling YouGov asked its favourability questions on parties and party leaders. These found TMay in serious negative territory almost across the board and almost on par with Corbyn at his worst.

My analysis of that, reflected in the chart above, finds that the PM is struggling to hold onto to the oldies. The chart numbers are based on subtracting those who have an unfavourable view of TMay from those who have a favourable one.

As is shown she had been doing extremely well with the 65+ group with huge favourability margins. In the latest polling she’s still in positive territory but only just by just 4 points. It used to be 55%

This doesn’t bode well for the blue team if there is a new general election which the party‚Äôs precarious parliamentary position might well lead to.

She used to be an electoral asset. Now it is looking like she is an electoral liability.

Mike Smithson


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