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Category: Scotland

Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

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I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective. On the political front this might be the most important election this decade, if the the SNP win a majority then it reinforces their mandate…

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Ladbrokes make Sturgeon going his year an 11/10 bet

Ladbrokes make Sturgeon going his year an 11/10 bet

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Are we heading for an SNP leadership contest? With rumours swelling that Scotland’s First Minister is to resign, the bookies make Sturgeon 11/10 to have left her post before the end of 2020, however it is odds-on at 4/6 she is still in charge. Sturgeon’s problem is that her party is very much divided and next year Scotland goes to the polls to elect a new Scottish Parliament when issues such as how the SNP has run the country for…

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Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

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Your first big electoral test looks set to be the Scottish Assembly elections next year in a part of the UK where for decades your party was totally dominant. Recovering some of the ground lost there to the SNP might be an indicator that a general election victory could be in reach. The charts above from the Commons Library analysis of the last general election set out in stark terms how Scotland’s Westminster MP party distribution changed dramatically less than…

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Trouble over bridged waters. Boris Johnson’s plan to link Scotland and Northern Ireland

Trouble over bridged waters. Boris Johnson’s plan to link Scotland and Northern Ireland

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While love can build a bridge, it’s far from clear that Boris Johnson can.  He planned one across the Thames, but that was scrapped.  Then he mooted one across the English Channel, to be shot down quickly.  Now he is shelling out public money to investigate the possibility of a bridge across the North Channel between Larne (half an hour from Belfast) and Portpatrick (50 lightyears from anywhere).  Is it going to be third time a charm for Boris Johnson?…

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The SNP’s Brexit conundrum

The SNP’s Brexit conundrum

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Drink, says the Porter in the ‘Scottish Play’, is an equivocator with lechery: “it provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance…. it sets him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him, and disheartens him”.  So it may prove with Brexit and Scottish Independence. Nicola Sturgeon loses no opportunity to remind Scots that Brexit is taking them out of the EU ‘against their will’, citing this as justification for holding another independence referendum so soon after the…

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Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?

Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?

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? At a pinch this might impact on Johnson’s majority hopes Two and a half years ago the Tory star was then Scottish leader Ruth Davidson who saw her party north of the border make 12 gains to add to their previous single seat in Scotland. She was widely hailed as the future of the party and, even though not an MP, rose sharpy in the next Westminster leader betting. There was little doubt that it was Davidson who saved…

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New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

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From @IpsosMORI Scotland poll with vote changes on Scottish results at GE2017. This points to SNP gains from both LAB and CON CON 26 -2.6LAB 16 -11.1LD 11 +4.2SNP 44 +7.1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2019 This could make Johnson’s majority bid that bit harder The part of the UK that has seen the most turbulence with many seats changing hands at the past two general elections has been Scotland which is why special attention needs to be…

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If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

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A poll graphic with a range of exciting facial expressions on our party leaders? Ok, seeing as it’s you pic.twitter.com/ASI9ckwxXn — Jason Allardyce (@SundayTimesSco) November 24, 2019 I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to see this, after all it was heavily trailed earlier on this year, that the Johnson/Cummings strategy to sacrifice Scottish and Remain inclined seats to win a plethora of Labour held Leave inclined seats. As the country’s greatest ever psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice, writes Just…

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